Owen’s Outsiders: 80-1 Cesarewitch tip can outrun her massive odds

Owen's Outsiders

It’s another day of Group 1 action on Saturday. Newmarket plays host to the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, a race that sees Native Trail put his unbeaten record back on the line.

There’s also the small matter of the Cesarewitch, one of the big betting races of the season. 34 runners will stake their claim for the prize and we’ll have horse racing tips for all the ITV action.

As always on a Saturday, I’m on the hunt for further glory with some outsiders. I’ve taken aim on the Cesarewitch and I believe this 80-1 selection is hugely overpriced; see all my analysis below!

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2.02 York – Coral Beaten-By-A-Length Free Bet Rockingham Stakes

Most bookmakers are offering four places in the Rockingham and I’ll take a chance with Sandbeck (33-1) for Tim Fitzgerald. A shrewd 1,500gns purchase as a foal, she’s already paid back £3,900 by making a winning debut at Carlisle.

Closely related to useful sprinter Pendleton, she travelled well into that aforementioned debut and quickened up well to lead in the dying strides. Although the bare form is nothing special, she’s entitled to improve exponentially from that debut effort.

She’ll relish the stiff finish at York, as she seems to have plenty of stamina at this trip, and softer ground shouldn’t be a problem. Silvestre De Sousa takes over in the saddle and with natural improvement, she can launch late for a share of the prize.


3.15 York – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap

Once a very classy performer, Snazzy Jazzy (33-1) would be an extremely popular winner of this prize for Lawrence Mullaney. Now a six-year-old, his career highlights include wins at Group 3 and Listed level.

He’s not the force of old, but he’s slipped to just a pound above the mark he won the 2018 Ayr Silver Trophy off. Given that he was rated 107 to start the year, a current rating of 96 is very generous if he can return to anything like his best.

His best effort of the campaign thus far came at York, where a slow start didn’t help his cause. That’s a regular issue for him, but if he can break on terms, in a race where he can chase a strong pace back at six furlongs, he’s a big each-way candidate.


3.35 Newmarket – Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap

She’s perhaps a better horse on the All-Weather, but I think Margaret Dumont (80-1) has a big run in her for Hugo Palmer. She was beaten just two lengths in the Northumberland Vase back in June off a pound higher and that sort of form gives her an each-way chance.

In terms of her turf form, there have been flashes of brilliance, including a sixth-place finish in the 2m 4f handicap at Glorious Goodwood. She did extremely well to finish as close as she did in a race that didn’t suit those that were held up and she’s four pounds lower today.

Two recent starts have been below her best, but the visor is now fitted and Georgia Dobie removes a handy three pounds. With a tiny weight to carry, I think she has a far bigger chance than her odds of 80-1 suggest.


If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards.

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