Northumberland Plate Preview, Tips, Runners, Trends and Draw Bias

Withold wins the Northumberland Plate

One of the biggest betting races of the year, the Northumberland Plate in 2020 is shaping up to be another intensely competitive contest.

What is the Northumberland Plate

Nineteen runners will go to post for a two-mile handicap on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface. Hugely competitive and always a fascinating contest, it’s been won by the likes of Quest For More, Higher Power, Withhold and Royal Ascot winner Who Dares Wins in recent years, all very useful stayers.

It was formerly run on the turf and only since 2016 has it been contested on the artificial surface, which is a crucial thing to bare in mind for the trends.

Who Won The Northumberland Plate 2019

The contest was won by Who Dares Wins for Alan King and Tom Marquand.

When is the Northumberland Plate

The scheduled off-time for the 2020 Northumberland Plate is 3.35pm on the 27th June 2020.

Where Can I watch the Northumberland Plate

The Northumberland Plate will be shown on Sky Sports Racing and on ITV, for those wanting to watch the terrestrial coverage.

Northumberland Plate Key Trends

  • High Draw Not The High Ground – Seventeen of the last twenty winners came from stall 14 or lower
  • Going The Distance – Sixteen of the last twenty winners had scored over 1m 6f or further prior to this race
  • Recent Winning Form Not Essential – Five of the last twenty won their most recent outing
  • Favourites Graveyard – Just four of the last twenty favourites have won the contest
  • Old But Not Gold – Just four of the last twenty renewals were won by a horse aged seven or older

Proven form over the distance is essential, given that the race tends to become a true test of stamina. With this also being a handicap, previous winning form can be a detriment rather than an aide, as it means the horse will be arriving off a higher mark. In such a competitive contest, that can prove a huge difference.

Unsurprisingly, this isn’t a race where favourites tend to be successful. This is a hugely competitive contest and as such, it’s far more difficult to rule out those at higher prices. Older horses tend to succumb to younger improvers too, so it can be fruitful to follow the more unexposed horses in the field.

Northumberland Plate Draw Bias

Despite the distance of the race, the draw still plays a crucial part in deciding the winner. With so many previous scorers coming from lower stalls, those drawn high have plenty of cause for worry. This year’s renewal sees Caravan Of Hope (18), Rainbow Dreamer (15), Anyonecanhaveitall (18) and Collide (19), all being fancied runners drawn high.

Northumberland Plate 2020 Key Runners

In-form trainer Roger Varian has the early favourite Australis, an improving four-year-old who has won two of his last three starts, including a beating of another well-fancied runner Caravan Of Hope. Smart Champion is a course and distance winner and firmly on the upgrade, while older-stayer Rainbow Dreamer would be a popular success for last year’s winning trainer Alan King and woman of the hour Hollie Doyle.

Who Do The Northumberland Plate Trends Favour?

A course and distance winner back in February, Smart Champion is an unexposed four-year-old who is drawn well in stall seven. He was last seen finishing a very good fourth at Royal Ascot in the Ascot Stakes and is just two pounds higher today. The horse he beat back in February was Carnwennan, who isn’t drawn quite as well, but does fit a similar profile, albeit he’s a more inconsistent five-year-old.

Tom Dascombe’s Rajinsky is another interesting one. He was a winner over fourteen furlongs at Wolverhampton in December and he reappeared with a good third at Newbury earlier this month in this grade. Running just twice on the All-Weather, he’s completely unexposed and at the age of four, further improvement can be expected over the distance.

Northumberland Plate Trainers To Follow

There haven’t been many trainers to win the contest more than once and any who have, don’t have runners in this year’s contest. In which case, Alan King is the one to highlight. He won last year’s contest with Who Dares Wins and he holds two chances in this year’s contest.

The chief danger is likely to be Rainbow Dreamer, an extremely strong stayer who has won four of his last five starts, with the sole defeat being his latest start, where he wasn’t beaten far over course and distance in a Group 3.

Northumberland Plate Tip

Formely of John Gosden, GLENCADAM GLORY looks the one to side with in another ultra-competitive renewal of the Northumberland Plate. He scored twice for Gosden, landing his sole All-Weather start at Wolverhampton over twelve furlongs.

Making his stable debut after a fourteen-month absence, he shaped with bundles of promise when fourth in a competitive Listed race at Doncaster earlier this month. He makes his handicap debut today off a competitive mark and he’s completely unexposed over both the distance and on the All-Weather, winning his sole previous attempt.

Plenty of improvement can be expected from this lightly-raced six-year-old and he looks a huge price in a contest where big-priced winners are less surprising than winning favourites.

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