Newmarket races – 1000 Guineas trends in a disrupted season

The Qipco 1000 Guineas, the second classic of the season following the 2000 Guineas, which is run the day before. The 1000 Guineas is open to three-year-old fillies and like the 2000 Guineas, is run at flat racing’s headquarters Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course, over a trip of one mile.

As with any big race, trend analysis is a useful way of looking through the runners while trying to unearth the winner. Trend analysis can also be particularly pertinent in an early-season race like the 1000 Guineas where many participants only have their two-year-old season form to judge them on.

With the 1000 Guineas the early season target for all of last year’s top fillies that race at around a mile, trends are a great way of looking at typical form requirements, trainer habits, and what it takes to win the second classic of the season.

Key 1000 Guineas Trends

• Price – 3 of the last 12 winners were favourites, with 5 of the last 12 winners in the first three in the betting
• Last Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the 1000 Guineas
  8 of the last 12 winners had run in the last 31 days
• Previous Flat Form – 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous flat runs
  10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 flat wins
• Season Form – 8 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run that season
• Previous Course Form – 8 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at Newmarket, with 5 winners having at least one previous win at the course
• Previous Distance Form – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run over 8 Furlongs, 4 of which had at least one win over the trip
• Rating – 8 of the last 12 winners were rated 106 or higher
• Group Wins – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least one win at Group level

Previous 1000 Guineas Winners

• 2019 – Hermosa – Wayne Lordan – Aidan O’Brien – 14/1
• 2018 – Billesdon Brook – Sean Levey – Richard Hannon – 66/1
• 2017 – Winter – Wayne Lordan – Aidan O’Brien – 9/1
• 2016 – Minding -Ryan Moore – Aidan O’Brien – 11/10 F
• 2015 – Legatissimo –  Ryan Moore – David Wachman – 13/2
• 2014 – Miss France – Maxime Guyom – Andre Fabre – 7/1
• 2013 – Sky Lantern – Richard Hughes – Richard Hannon Snr – 9/1
• 2012 – Homecoming Queen – Ryan Moore – Aidan O’Brien – 25/1
• 2011 – Blue Bunting – Frankie Dettori – Mahmood Al Zarooni – 16/1
• 2010 – Special Duty – Stephane Pasquier – Criquette Head-Maarek – 9/2 F
• 2009 – Ghanaati – Richard Hills – B W Hills – 20/1
• 2008 – Natagora – Cristophe Lemaire – Pascal Bary – 11/4 F

1000 Guineas favourites finishing positions (most recent to oldest): 3,3,2,1,2,17,9,3,7,1,5,1

Are the 1000 Guineas trends still applicable in a disrupted season?

The concern with trend analysis and thus betting based on trends during what has been a disrupted start to the racing season is that the majority of trends are based on this season’s form as well as their two-year-old campaign.

Both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas’ are run very early in the season, so a popular trend to look at is the need for, or lack of, a run before the Classics.

In contrast to the 2000 Guineas where only three of the last 12 winners have had a run that season, there seems to be more importance placed on the fillies having a run prior to the 1000 Guineas – whereby 8 of the last 12 winners had raced within the last 31 days.

A peculiar trend, with no real explanation. Fillies are often described as being easier to train by their trainers, said to come to hand quicker than colts, so you’d expect them to be easier to get ready without race fitness on side.

Fillies can, however, be campaigned differently to their male counterparts. While breeding is a big part of any top horse’s post-racing career, its’ particularly important for a filly to achieve black-type status on the track. Both the Dubai Duty Free and the Nell Gwynn Stakes run in April are seven-furlong Group-3 contests only open to three-year-old fillies, and with limited opportunities throughout a season to earn this status, connections will not want to bypass them, even with 1000 Guineas-bound fillies.

The betting in the 1000 Guineas has not been a particularly strong factor with only three favourites winning in the last 12 years, with nine of the last 12 winners being priced at 11/2 or bigger, it is a race that can certainly throw up a surprise.

A trend that you do want to see in a Guineas selection, however, is a previous win at Group-level. Nine of the last 12 winners had previously won at Group-level prior to landing the 1000 Guineas, and although as highlighted above, Group races have been lost in a disrupted season so far, the majority of those group wins came during the runners’ two-year-old season.

In comparison to the 2000 Guineas, the trend analysis of the 1000 Guineas doesn’t draw up as many strong conclusions. And while you want a horse tried over a mile and a winner at Group-level, most runners in the 1000 Guineas will tick those boxes each year and this year is set to be no different.

Perhaps the main trend to take from the 1000 Guineas is that due to the unpredictability of fillies, no trend seems too strong to be overcome. With many winners having varied profiles heading into the race, there doesn’t seem to be as much of a stock 1000 Guineas winner. And with upsets, a common occurrence, even those with the strongest two-year-old form can be vulnerable, and there aren’t many you could confidently rule out.

Where can I find Newmarket Tips & 1000 Guineas Tips?

With final declarations now out for the 1000 Guineas be sure to check out our designated Newmarket Tips page for coverage of all of the action across the final day of the 2020 Guineas Festival with analysis and tips for each of the final 10 Newmarket races this weekend.

Plenty of our daily racing tips are posted in the early evening the day before the meeting, with the remainder going up the next morning, and that’s no different for all our Newmarket tips!