There’s a substantial market move underway at Southwell on Tuesday. One runner has seen it’s price slashed in half since the previous evening. The sustained market support is not stopping as the price has shortened in the time it takes to write this article. Keith Dalgleish is the horse’s trainer and when the money comes for his runners, you take note. This horse has gone from being an each-way player to a win only candidate. Check out our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.
Surprise Picture (11-2, bet365) was available at 12-1 with bet365 on Monday evening which was the industry best price. They are one of just three firms offering 11-2 currently, with the other major bookies offering 5-1 or 9-2. His form hasn’t been electric recently but there’s plenty of evidence in the form book which bodes well for the horse.
The five-year-old gelding’s last win came at Hamilton in July where he scored in a Class 4 6f handicap by a narrow margin. That victory came off a mark of 75 and his current rating is 11lb lower. He was also a comfortable winner over a mile off a mark of 85 for Hugo Palmer in July 2021. Clearly he’s not the same horse nowadays but there’s enough recent evidence to suggest he could win here.
It was a decent effort over course and distance two starts ago. Despite finishing fifth, he was only beaten by two-and-a-half lengths. As that effort came off a 3lb higher mark, he has to be dangerous here in a lower grade. It’s probably last chance saloon for this horse now, having dropped into Class 6 company.
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