Epsom Oaks 2020 – Betting Preview, Tips and Trends

Forever Together wins the Oaks under Donnacha O'Brien

The first classic of an incredible Super Saturday, the Epsom Oaks promises to be another John Gosden vs Aidan O’Brien slugfest, with the top trainers holding the aces once again. 

The Epsom Oaks 2020

Raced over the 1m 4f distance, the £141,775 prize pool is perhaps far less significant than the historical impact the winner will have. The value of an Oaks winner, in racing terms, is astronomical, and both Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden will be more than aware of that, as they seemingly have the strongest hands in this year’s Group 1 classic.

Epsom Oaks Tip

Improving sharply with all three of her runs, Ennistymon should still have plenty more to offer for the maestro of Ballydoyle. Winning her maiden on return over ten furlongs, she was stepped up twelve furlongs for the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, where she flashed home into a close second behind Frankly Darling.

She was closing all the way to the line and further experience can only lead to even more success for this daughter of Galileo. She doesn’t have much ground to make up on John Gosden’s charge and with ground conditions falling into place, she looks sure to run a huge race.

Epsom Oaks Runners

In terms of the market, the race revolves around two, with the first being Aidan O’Brien’s Love. A Group 1 winner as a juvenile, she returned with a career-best effort to win the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in grand style. A daughter of Galileo, there are plenty of mixed signals about her likelihood of staying. The fact she’s a sister to both 1m 4f and 1m 6f winners Flattering and Peach Tree, gives plenty of hope in that regard, however.

John Gosden provides the biggest threat in the shape of Frankly Darling, who broke her maiden on her second career start prior to a fantastic performance at Royal Ascot to win the Ribblesdale. With proven stamina and ground versatility ticked off, she’s certainly the rocksteady option in the race over Love, who regardless of her pedigree, isn’t guaranteed to stay.

Third in is perhaps the overlooked Ennistymon, a thrice-raced filly who built on her maiden success when chasing home Frankly Darling in the Ribblesdale. In a race where it was favourable to race with the pace, she was forced to come from behind, hitting the line very strongly. She should relish the Oaks test and with further experience under her belt, she should be much closer to Gosden’s charge this time.

It’s double-figure prices for the rest of the runners, with Roger Varian’s Gold Wand bring the only one in the tens was a winner on her second start at Newbury in June where she scored comfortably. That form is impossible to gauge with the four behind her not having run since. It’s feasible she can improve substantially, but she will certainly need to.

Epsom Oaks Stats & Trends

  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won that season
  • 7 of the last 12 winners were rated 102 or higher
  • 5 of the last 12 winners were priced at 20/1 or bigger
  • 3 of the last 12 winners had won a group contest
  • 2 of the last 12 winners were sent off the SP favourite
  • 0 of the last 12 winners had previously run over twelve furlongs

Some extremely interesting trends to look at for this year’s Oaks. With five of the last 12 winners being at odds of 20/1 or bigger, it means that this year’s Oaks field is perhaps more competitive than first could be suggested. Perhaps the other most interesting stat, is the fact that none of the last 12 winners had previously run over twelve furlongs. That gives plenty of hope for backers of Love, who makes the step up in distance today along with Gold Wand.

Epsom Oaks Previous Winners

2019 – Anapurna (Frankie Dettori, John Gosden)
2018 – Forever Together (Donnacha O’Brien, Aidan O’Brien)
2017 – Enable (Frankie Dettori, John Gosden)
2016 – Minding (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien)
2015 – Qualify (Colm O’Donoghue, Aidan O’Brien)
2014 – Taghrooda (Paul Hanagan, John Gosden)
2013 – Talent (Richard Hughes, Ralph Beckett)
2012 – Was (Seamie Heffernan, Aidan O’Brien)
2011 – Dancing Rain (Johnny Murtagh, William Haggas)
2010 – Snow Fairy (Ryan Moore, Ed Dunlop)
2009 – Sariska (Jamie Spencer, Michael Bell)
2008 – Look Here (Seb Sanders, Ralph Beckett)

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