Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Trends

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Trends
© Racing Post / Edward Whitaker
Andy Newton
Friday 30th November 2018

The top-notch jumping action continues this Saturday with another cracking card at Newbury to whet the appetite.

We’ve four live races on ITV from the Berkshire track, with the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase the showcase event – the old Hennessy Gold Cup to seasoned racegoers.

Run over three and a quarter-miles, the Grade Three Handicap has been won by some big names in recent years and has often been a good guide to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, with Bobs Worth the last horse to complete the double in the same season (2012/13).

There are plenty of Ladbrokes Trophy Chase tips to take into the race too. Trainer Nicky Henderson has landed two of the last six runnings, while despite the big fields it’s actually been a decent race for favourite backers, with the last two market leaders going in.

However, be wary of horses aged in double-figures as since 1968 there has only been one winner aged ten or older. In fact, with a stonking fifteen of the last sixteen winners aged eight or younger this is a top trend to apply to the field.

You can get more help finding the winner of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase on our ITV Racing Tips

Plus, to help pin-point the best winning profile of the 2018 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase we are on-hand with some key trends and statistics.

We hope they help you find the winner, but if you fancy a horse we’ve not featured below then simply apply these stats to that runner.

  • 15 of the last 16 winners were aged eight or younger
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had won between two-five times over fences
  • 13 of the last 16 winners finished in the first three last time out
  • 12 of the last 16 winners had run at Newbury before (eight had won there over fences)
  • 12 of the last 16 carried 10st 13lbs or more in weight
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged either six or seven years-old
  • 10 of the last 16 winners had a previous run that same season

Trends – Key Runners

Elegant Escape ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅

Thomas Patrick ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅

Ms Parfois ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌

Dingo Dollar ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅

American ✅✅❌✅✅❌❌

Trends Analysis:

Elegant Escape has been at the head of the betting since returning to the track from a wind operation with a nice win at Sandown three weeks ago. This six-year-old will be looking to give trainer Colin Tizzard his second win in the race after taking the 2016 renewal with Native River and the stats suggest he’s got every chance. In fact, he gets a thumbs-up on ALL seven of our main trends and is also a proven course winner over fences at the Berkshire track – 50% of the last sixteen winners had also previously won a chase race here. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from his eight runs over fences (three wins) and at just six-years-old there’s every chance there’s more to come. The trends say he’s a big player.

The Tom Lacey-trained Thomas Patrick is another of the leading fancies and seeing that he also gets a clean-sweep with our trends then his chance is hard to ignore too. This six-year-old is closely-matched with Elegant Escape after finishing just half-a-length behind him at Sandown last time, but a five pound weight pull in his favour this time a strong case can be made on him reversing that run. The pair pulled ten lengths clear of the third that day and had the useful Terrefort further back in fourth – the form looks solid. It should be another fascinating clash between the two and if the trends are to believed you really can make a case for either.

Ms Parfois was a punters’ pal last season over fences after winning three of her seven starts over fences and finishing in the top three each time. This seven-year-old stays further than this three and a quarter mile trip too, having run a close second in the National Hunt Challenge Cup over four miles at the Cheltenham Festival last season. Our trends see her tick five of the seven and is also a proven course winner – she’s another the stats suggest has a leading chance. However, not having had a recent run sees her fall down on that key stat, plus it might pay to note that his last two seasonal reappearance runs have seen her finish down the field. A consistent and improving staying chaser, but will the lack of a recent run find her out?

Dingo Dollar would be a topical winner with all the I’m A Celebrity action going on at the moment, but even though we can expect him to be supported based on this, he’s got a leading chance in his own right too. A comeback fourth here at Newbury was a solid effort and the form has been well-advertised since. Trainer Alan King and jockey Wayne Hutchinson teamed-up to win this race with the popular grey Smad Place in 2015 and with six of the seven stats on his side then Dingo Dollar looks to have a top chance of landing the cash! The only potential negative is that he wasn’t placed last time out, but he only just missed out on that (fourth), but with course winning form over fences and that recent run sure to have blown away the cobwebs there’s a lot to like about his chance.

The eight-year-old, American, was sent off as short as 5/1 in this race last year but after making a mistake at the water jump never really recovered. He bounced back to run a solid second in the Grade Two Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last January, but was outclassed in the Gold Cup a few months later. So, what has changed ahead of his chance this year? Not much really. Yes, he’s rated three-pounds lower this time but even though he is actually carrying five pounds more in actual weight this is offset by the jockey’s claim. He’s gone okay fresh in the past so the long absence isn’t too much of a worry and barring his run in this race last year, plus the Gold Cup, he’s actually won three of his six runs over fences. Having said that, with three of our seven stats against him (age, recent run and last time out form), and the fact he flopped in this race last year then he’s got a bit to prove.

Every Newbury race covered live on ITV can be found on our Newbury Racing Tips page, with runner by runner previews for each contest.

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