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Welcome to our new article – “Get Layed” – where we will give a daily horse (or two) which we don’t think will win! Laying involves offering odds that the horse won’t win – you are the bookie! If they lose, you win the stake of the bettor, if they win, you have to pay out the bettors profit.
Note: you can’t lay horses on any of the normal bookies, only on Exchanges. Betfair is the biggest and best betting Exchange with the most liquidity, so we’d recommend using them.
We’ve got four out of four lays correct so far and even if you aren’t laying these bets, they are a good way to know what not to back!
The 8.15 at Kempton is the 32Red.com handicap, a class three contest raced over one mile and four furlongs with five runners currently lined up to take part. This race for three year-olds is composed of some inexperienced sorts with two of the five runners having raced only once and one of the runners having only ran twice. The latter is the horse I want to take on, Man Look, available to lay currently on the exchanges at 3.50 and generally a 9/4 chance with the bookmakers.
Normally when I look for a lay, I like to find a horse I believe has flaws or factors against it which the market has not factored in. However, in this particular race whilst I have still done the same, one of the biggest reasons for my opposition to Man Look comes in the form of his main market rival – Process. I was watching the racing a fortnight ago at Kempton when Process absolutely smashed up a very decent field for a Wednesday night maiden and won with plenty of fuel left in the tank. Today Process goes up in trip with an extra furlong to face and having watched replays of his impressive Kempton success I would say he would be very much suited by this move. Although Process was receiving a decent amount of weight, he still beat a horse named Honourable Action (rated 74) by 4 ½ lengths off level weights. Whilst I don’t believe it will be plain sailing for Process off 85, I think it is well within the realms of possibility that this horse could well romp home again. It is also a welcome form boost that the second that day has subsequently won, having run incredibly green and awkward around Kempton a week later before convincingly beating the second (rated 68) by 3 ¼ lengths.
Man Look on the other hand has a far less impressive CV. He was never a factor in a mile contest last year finishing eleven out of fourteen but the breeding suggests that he was always going to struggle that day. He stepped up two furlongs on his reappearance this year and finished a very cosy winner, far greater than the winning distance actually suggests when winning a five runner Lingfield contest. The money was down that day and he was well backed, but this is a big hike in class from a bottom grade class six to a modest class three event. That’s a big jump in class and although the second has yet to run since that race, the third that day (beaten a long way) came third off 57 which suggests that the form is absolutely nothing to shout about even though he was beaten a long way.
David Probert is on board for Andrew Balding which is a positive relationship around Kempton, but as Man Look loses a 3lb claimer, that in effect heightens the step up he has to make off a mark of 71. I think this mark looks fair for Man Look and he receives a big 14lbs from Process which does unnerve me slightly, but there is no doubt for me that Process is a far better horse than Man Look and I am yet to be convinced that Man Look will even find 71 a very workable mark.
Of the rest, I would advise against putting a cross through any of the other opposition, especially Mark Johnston’s Vive Ma Fille who ran out a five length winner on debut beating a 2/5 Gosden inmate and a Godolphin runner which isn’t exactly a bad way to start your career. The Gosden runner is the only one to have run since that race and finished third off a mark of 75. Vive Ma Fille has been given an opening mark of 80 which, if the conditions of Kempton suit, should see her give a very good account of herself and she could be the unknown class of the field.
In the future I think this race will be a nice bit of form and with three really classy and totally unexposed horses at the front of the market, I think it will be a very competitive contest. I think Vive Ma Fille and Process could be the two class horses in the race having faced tougher grades than Man Look and as a result I think Man Look’s price of 3.50 looks very much on the short side and I think it represents great value for layers. The outcome of the race will very much depend on how well Process can give away a whole stone to Man Look, but if how I saw his last run was correct, I think Man Look should not be winning this and is a lay for me.