'He looks massively overpriced' - Liam's 20/1 Dublin Racing Festival best bet
18 hours ago
KEMPTON (AW)
29 January 2025
Wednesday 29th January
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Selection
Selection
Selected At
Ardennes
Selected at:
20/1
Ardennes won a Salisbury novice back in June and followed that up with a respectable fourth in a warm nursery at Glorious Goodwood. Second over course and distance back in December, a return to winning ways could be on the agenda, now on a 1lb lower mark.
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20/1
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Racecard
No.(Draw)
Runner
Best Odds
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Solid return to action at Lingfield this month; more required to defy top weight here
317-3
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
OR: 80
Days: 20
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 25 | Lin Lingfield (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 43yHc | 9-8 h | 3/8 | Carbine Harvester (2¼L) | 18/1 | 81 | 77 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Nmk Newmarket (July) | 7f GF | 2yG3F | 9-2 h | 7/7 | Lake Victoria (24L) | 20/1 | - | 38 |
| 24 Jul 24 | Sal Salisbury | 6f GF | 42yNvF | 9-2 h | 1/8 | Tropical Heat (2¼L) | 2/5F | - | 82 |
| 11 Jul 24 | Nmk Newmarket (July) | 6f GS | 22yMdF | 9-2 h1 | 3/9 | Magic Mild (1½L) | 11/1 | - | 81 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Needs to bounce back from latest Lingfield flop and he's more exposed than many of these
5623-8
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
OR: 80
Days: 20
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 25 | Lin Lingfield (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 43yHc | 9-6 | 8/8 | Carbine Harvester (15L) | 8/1 | 82 | 37 |
| 29 Dec 24 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 6f St | 42yHc | 9-5 | 3/7 | Carbine Harvester (3¾L) | 7/4F | 82 | 81 |
| 4 Dec 24 | Kem Kempton (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 42yHc | 9-6 | 2/9 | Cyclonite (1½L) | 15/2 | 81 | 84 |
| 11 Oct 24 | Yor York | 5f Sft | 32yHc | 8-12 | 6/10 | End Of Story (5¾L) | 9/1 | 83 | 68 |
| 3 Oct 24 | Sal Salisbury | 6f Hy | 22y | 9-6 | 5/6 | Bob Mali (5½L) | 6/1 | 83 | 71 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Yor York | 5f GF | 2yL | 9-2 | 12/16 | Tropical Storm (9¾L) | 16/1 | 84 | 65 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Improvement is needed to defy this opening mark and he has the widest stall to overcome
193-
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
OR: 79
Days: 81
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 24 | Cfd Chelmsford (AW) | 6f St | 52yNv | 9-8 | 3/10 | Initial Blue (½L) | 9/2 | - | 78 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Ssi San Siro | 6f Sft | 2yG3 | 8-11 | 9/9 | Korisa (24L) | 4/6F | - | 24 |
| 17 May 24 | Nmk Newmarket | 6f Gd | 22yNv | 9-7 | 1/12 | Calyxoh (hd) | 14/1 | - | 78 |
Second on debut before beating some subsequent winners at Wolverhampton (5f); unexposed
21-
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
OR: 77
Days: 46
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec 24 | Wol Wolverhampton (AW) | 5f St | 52yNv | 9-7 | 1/11 | Miss Funky Monk (½L) | 13/8F | - | 77 |
| 13 Nov 24 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 6f St | 52yMd | 9-7 | 2/11 | Kildonan (nk) | 11/1 | - | 71 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
BF
Beaten Favourite - Losing favourite last time out
w2
Wind Op - Second run after wind operation
Hot Recent Form Jockey - 4 wins from 15 in the last 14 days (27%)
Flopped when a red-hot favourite at Lingfield three weeks ago; tongue tie now enlisted
314-7
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
OR: 77
Days: 20
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 25 | Lin Lingfield (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 43yHc | 9-5 | 7/8 | Carbine Harvester (11½L) | 6/4F | 78 | 45 |
| 26 Jun 24 | Sal Salisbury | 6f GF | 22yNv | 9-6 | 4/13 | Caburn (3¼L) | 4/5F | - | 74 |
| 20 May 24 | Wdr Windsor | 6f GF | 22yMd | 9-7 | 1/15 | Gap Year (1¼L) | 11/8F | - | 81 |
| 11 May 24 | Lei Leicester | 5f Gd | 52yMd | 9-7 | 3/12 | Over Spiced (2L) | 100/30 | - | 73 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Won a 6f nursery at Southwell last month but he's failed to back it up twice since
6615-6
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
OR: 74
Days: 20
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 25 | Lin Lingfield (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 43yHc | 9-2 | 6/8 | Carbine Harvester (7¼L) | 50/1 | 75 | 54 |
| 28 Dec 24 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 5f St | 42yHc | 9-1 | 5/6 | Brosay (5¾L) | 5/2 | 75 | 60 |
| 14 Dec 24 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 6f St | 52yHc | 9-8 | 1/12 | Mister McGregor (nk) | 18/1 | 72 | 76 |
| 23 Sep 24 | Ham Hamilton | 5f GS | 42yHc | 9-1 | 6/6 | Call Me Harswell (9½L) | 33/1 | 76 | 48 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Cur Curragh | 5f Gd | 2yL | 9-5 | 6/6 | Treasure Isle (11½L) | 50/1 | 78 | 56 |
| 19 Jun 24 | Asc Ascot | 5f GF | 2yL | 9-5 | 20/27 | Ain't Nobody (10½L) | 80/1 | - | 63 |
CD
C&D Winner - Won before on this course at this distance
Made a winning h'cap debut over C&D last week; penalty in a better race may find him out
4823-1
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
OR: 68
Days: 9
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 25 | Kem Kempton (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 53yHc | 9-6 | 1/8 | Sabrimento (1¼L) | 7/2 | 68 | 72 |
| 4 Sep 24 | Bat Bath | 5.5f Gd | 52yMd | 9-7 | 3/9 | Obsidian Dream (2L) | 5/2F | 68 | 64 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Bat Bath | 5.5f GF | 52yMd | 9-7 | 2/9 | Diomed Duke (1½L) | 7/2 | 66 | 69 |
| 24 Jul 24 | Lin Lingfield | 5f GF | 52yNv | 9-2 | 8/11 | Desdemona (10½L) | 14/1 | - | 40 |
| 17 Jun 24 | Wdr Windsor | 5f GF | 52yMd | 9-7 | 4/12 | John's Dragon (3½L) | 11/2 | - | 60 |
| 6 May 24 | Bat Bath | 5f GS | 42yMd | 9-7 | 6/9 | Star Anthem (5¾L) | 18/1 | - | 63 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
121 since a visor was fitted and his form has a solid look to it; should be involved again
4612-1
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
OR: 73
Days: 21
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 25 | Ncs Newcastle (AW) | 5f St/Slw | 53yHc | 9-6 v | 1/8 | Fallen Soldier (nse) | 6/1 | 71 | 73 |
| 2 Dec 24 | Wol Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f St | 52yHc | 9-6 v | 2/12 | Carbine Harvester (¾L) | 7/2J | 70 | 74 |
| 21 Nov 24 | Lin Lingfield (AW) | 5f St | 52yHc | 9-2 v1 | 1/9 | Forager (½L) | 9/4F | 67 | 70 |
| 19 Sep 24 | Yar Yarmouth | 6f GF | 42yHc | 8-6 | 6/6 | Redorange (13L) | 18/1 | 68 | 31 |
| 31 Aug 24 | Cfd Chelmsford (AW) | 5f St | 52yHc | 9-2 | 4/7 | Havana Blast (1¾L) | 11/8F | 68 | 67 |
| 31 Jul 24 | San Sandown | 5f GF | 42yHc | 8-8 | 6/8 | Adrestia (6½L) | 22/1 | 70 | 54 |
BF
Beaten Favourite - Losing favourite last time out
Flopped when a hot favourite for AW debut in November; still has some potential
5436-
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
OR: 73
Days: 74
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov 24 | Ncs Newcastle (AW) | 6f St | 52yNv | 9-4 | 6/7 | Shiplake (6¼L) | EvensF | 76 | 56 |
| 9 Oct 24 | Not Nottingham | 6f Hy | 52yNv | 9-7 | 3/10 | Arctic Voyage (6½L) | 100/30 | - | 72 |
| 20 Sep 24 | Nby Newbury | 6f Sft | 42yMd | 9-7 | 4/13 | Fast Track Harry (2¼L) | 18/1 | - | 77 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Wdr Windsor | 6f Sft | 52yNv | 9-4 | 5/13 | Midnight Thunder (8L) | 20/1 | - | 66 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
6f AW win this month but failed to back it up on last week's handicap debut
46-16
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
OR: 72
Days: 6
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 25 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 5f St | 43yHc | 9-1 | 6/7 | Star Chorus (8½L) | 7/1 | 72 | 54 |
| 9 Jan 25 | Cfd Chelmsford (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 5Md | 8-12 | 1/7 | This Farh (¾L) | 12/1 | - | 66 |
| 14 Dec 24 | Wol Wolverhampton (AW) | 5f St | 52yNv | 9-5 | 6/11 | Trouble Man (4¾L) | 25/1 | - | 58 |
| 20 Nov 24 | Kem Kempton (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 52yNv | 8-13 | 4/11 | Brave Byreflection (3½L) | 33/1 | - | 60 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Cold Recent Form Trainer - 0 wins from 12 in the last 14 days (0%)
On the up in recent starts and suspicion there's more to come; one to take seriously
4981-2
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
OR: 70
Days: 15
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 25 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 6f St | 53yHc | 9-7 | 2/8 | Blue Lakota (½L) | 100/30 | 69 | 71 |
| 31 Dec 24 | Lin Lingfield (AW) | 6f St | 52yHc | 9-3 | 1/8 | Friday Again (2L) | 100/30J | 63 | 69 |
| 26 Sep 24 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 5f St | 62yHc | 9-10 | 8/14 | Montana Girl (4½L) | 25/1 | 66 | 59 |
| 29 Aug 24 | Nby Newbury | 7f GF | 52yHc | 9-7 | 9/9 | Geo (6½L) | 9/2 | 68 | 56 |
| 24 Jul 24 | Cat Catterick | 6f GF | 52yMd | 9-7 | 4/6 | Easy Peeler (2¼L) | 11/1 | - | 62 |
| 3 Jul 24 | Mus Musselburgh | 5f Gd | 52yMd | 9-7 | 2/4 | Harswell Dandy (1¼L) | 5/1 | - | 64 |
Hot Recent Form Trainer - 5 wins from 20 in the last 14 days (25%)
Inconsistent and hopes rest on a ten-week break and new headgear prompting something extra
70048-
Age: 3
Weight: 8-11
OR: 68
Days: 72
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov 24 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 7f St | 52yHc | 9-5 p1 | 8/8 | Worthington Lake (12½L) | 14/1 | 71 | 38 |
| 28 Oct 24 | Ncs Newcastle (AW) | 6f St/Slw | 52yHc | 9-7 | 4/8 | Maissara (3¼L) | 6/1 | 73 | 71 |
| 22 Aug 24 | Yor York | 6f GF | 22y | 9-2 | 14/20 | Diligently (10½L) | 125/1 | 76 | 52 |
| 1 Aug 24 | Goo Goodwood | 7f GF | 22yHc | 8-11 | 16/16 | Mr Chaplin (16L) | 66/1 | 78 | 41 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Not Nottingham | 5f Gd | 42yNv | 9-4 | 7/10 | Mr Lightside (6L) | 5/1 | - | 63 |
| 26 Jun 24 | Crl Carlisle | 5f GF | 52yMd | 9-7 | 2/8 | Two Shoes (nk) | 100/30 | - | 75 |
Verdict
Several possibles but TROUBLE MAN perhaps has the greatest potential for further improvement and is preferred to Horus.
Trouble Man
Betting Forecast:
3/1 Trouble Man,
11/2 Camera Shy,
Oakley Boy,
6/1 Sergio Parisse,
9/1 Dream Voyage,
Distant Rumble,
Horus,
11/1 Charmoula,
16/1 Ardennes,
20/1 Rock N Roll Rocket,
25/1 Em Four,
Cracking Man
Relevant Tips
No tips currently available.
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