The rain has not let up in Paris, with persistent showers throughout Friday and Saturday. Ground conditions at Longchamp are now described as “Very Soft” and it could be heavy by the time we get to post time, with further rain expected.
As a result, you’re going to need a horse who handles heavy going to be winning this year’s Arc. With fifteen runners in the field, and 10 of them at each-way prices, there is opportunity for a value selection who will relish the going.
We’ve found three horses who will glide through the Longchamp mud and you can find all the details below.
Of those at the front of the market, the first colours of Godolphin would be favoured in these conditions. He’s won on every type of ground, ranging from good to heavy, including a “Very Soft” Group 1 victory over course and distance. That was a career-best effort on the figures and he continued his rapid rise by winning the St Leger on his most recent start.
The fact he stays fourteen furlongs is a blessing, given the conditions, and no horse in the race will be outstaying him in the closing stages. William Buick has chosen Adayar, but James Doyle isn’t just a replacement and this son of Frankel has obvious claims.
The rain has come in the nick of time for Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly, who finished fifth in last year’s renewal of the race. She’s had a very lightly campaign in 2021, finishing second on her opening three starts, before exploding back to life in the Group 2 Prix de Pomone last time.
That was much more like it and she arrives to the contest much fresher than most. This will be just her third start over the trip and she still has the potential to improve for it, especially with a good pace to aim at. Rouget has his string in excellent form and she’s a fascinating each-way contender.
An eight-length winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on this card twelve months ago, heavy ground will be perfect for Cedric Rossi’s charge. That victory came on that exact going and he returned to that level of form on his most recent start back on softer going.
He flew home in the French Derby over ten furlongs, his first try of the trip, and that run suggested that twelve furlongs was in range. He’s totally unexposed over the middle distances and if he does manage to conserve enough stamina turning into the straight, he’s an each-way candidate.
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