It has been the week we have all been waiting for and all eyes will be firmly on Longchamp for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe this Sunday. The Queen Enable bids to etch her name into the history books once again but will the rain enhance the chances of dour stayer Stradivarius?
We will have heavy ground for the Arc this week which is hardly a surprise given its position in the autumn calendar. As the rain continues to pour down all week, Aidan O’Brien’s Love continued to drift in the betting and was pulled out of the race on Thursday. Enable has been the best-backed horse in the field and is now favourite but she was beaten on going officially described as Very Soft in this race last year.
Bjorn Nielsen’s superstar Stradivarius has been well backed too in the last few days. He is a dour stayer and on quick ground over a mile and a half would undoubtedly find things happening too fast. However, if the race turns into a complete mud-fest and a real test of stamina, it will enhance his chances.
France’s best hope seems to come in the shape of Sottsass who was given a nice prep for this when a close fourth behind Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes. He also has proven form on ground with a bit of cut in it so it would be no surprise to see the each-way players take a chance on the classy four-year-old colt.
Love had drifted mainly down to the fact that she is 0/3 on ground with cut in it. Serpentine has now been supplemented for the race and he is an interesting contender. Enable was beaten in this race last year on very soft ground so very testing conditions would have to be a major worry for her. Stradivarius has always been reported to prefer good ground by his trainer John Gosden and for all a real test would suit him, he should fall short over this distance where he is 0/3.
We have seen a plethora of support for both of John Gosden’s Arc runners, Enable (11/8) and Stradivarius (9/2). A large part of this could be down to sentiment as both horses are adored by the public. The reality is Enable is now too old. No six year old has ever won the Arc. Stradivarius is 0/3 over a mile and a half and is facing much classier opposition than what he is used to. Love has been taken out of the race for ground reasons but SERPENTINE has been supplemented for the race at a cost of €72,000. The runaway Epsom Derby winner ran better than the bare result behind Mogul when last seen in France. He is drawn in stall 15 but on soft/heavy ground, stall 15 has a 25-per-cent strike-rate in the Arc and he is the value in the race.
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1. Persian King – Andre Fabre
2. Royal Julius – Jerome Reynier
3. Way To Paris – Andrea Marcialis
4. Japan – Aidan O’Brien
5. Sovereign – Aidan O’Brien
6. Stradivarius – John Gosden
7. Sottsass – Jean-Claude Rouget
8. Enable – John Gosden
9. Deirdre – Mitsuru Hashida
10. Gold Trip – Fabrice Chappet
11. Chachnak – Fabrice Vermeulen
12. In Swoop – Francis-Henri Graffard
13. Mogul – Aidan O’Brien
14. Serpentine – Aidan O’Brien
15. Raabihah – Jean-Claude Rouget
View the racecard for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for tips and full preview.
The stats conclude that a low draw in the Arc is a major advantage in general. 19 of the last 24 Arc winners at Longchamp have broken from between stalls one and seven. On the face of it that is an incredible statistic and one to keep in mind. However, when the ground is soft or heavy, things change. 4 of the 8 Arc winners on soft or heavy ground at Longchamp have broken out of stalls 8-15. Something to keep in mind this weekend although last years winner Waldgeist won from gate three on very soft.
Enable (5)
Stradivarius (14)
Sottsass (4)
In Swoop (1)
Serpentine (15)