Peter Marsh Chase Trends 2019

The ITV cameras are at both Ascot and Haydock this Saturday, but it’s the last-named venue that we are heading for this week’s feature trends race.

We’ve three races from Haydock Park with the Grade Two Peter Marsh Chase taking centre stage.

Run over a trip of three miles one and a half furlongs, the contest is often billed as another Grand National trial, however, over the years this has become more in name rather than actually producing winners of the Merseyside Marathon. This is backed-up with no horse, since this race was first run in 1981, landing both prizes in the same season. In fact, seven of the last fifteen Peter Marsh Chase winners went onto finish unplaced in the National.

You can get more help finding the winner of the Peter Marsh Chase on our ITV Racing Tips page.

Plus, to help pinpoint the best winning profile of the 2019 Peter Marsh Chase we are on-hand with some key trends and statistics.

We hope they help you find the winner, but if you fancy a horse that we’ve not featured below then simply apply these stats to that runner.

Key Peter Marsh Chase Trends

14 of the last 15 winners were aged eight or older
14 of the last 15 winners had raced in the last six weeks
14 of the last 15 winners carried 11st 3lbs or less in weight
11 of the last 15 winners had won at least three times over fences before
10 of the last 15 winners had won at Haydock before
10 of the last 15 winners carried 10st 12lbs or less in weight

Main Peter Marsh Chase Runners

Valtor ✅✅❌✅❌❌

Daklondike ❌✅✅✅✅✅

Ballyarthur ✅✅✅❌❌✅

Robinsfirth ✅❌✅❌❌✅

Captain Redbeard ✅✅✅✅✅✅

Ballydine ✅✅✅❌❌✅

Otago Trail ✅✅✅✅❌❌

Trends Analysis:

This has been a prize that’s eluded the champion trainer, Nicky Henderson, so he’ll be hoping to put that right with Valtor. The horse has done the bulk of his running in France but made a winning UK debut at Ascot last month, and with fifty-one races under rules certainly won’t lack for experience. However, the handicapper has hiked him up twelve pounds for that win and is set to race with top-weight of 11st 10lbs. It’s a big burden to lump but we have seen four past winners carry that same weight. Overall, he’s an interesting runner but we’ll have to see if he can cope with the hefty rise in the ratings, while with three of our six trends against him then he’s got a bit to answer.

The Pipe yard’s sole success in this race came in 2010 and with Daklondike they have a fair chance of adding to that. This seven-year-old rallied well to beat Ballyarthur at the track last time out but a six-pound rise means more is needed. With just eight runs over fences (four wins) there should, however, be plenty of scope for progression, but it is also worth noting that all career wins have been in soft or worse conditions – any more rain would certainly improve his chance. Overall, with five of our trends on his side then he’s hard to fault with his age the only stat to overcome.

Ballyarthur got a mention in the previous paragraph but he’ll be looking for his revenge over Daklondike on one-pound better terms. This Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained nine-year-old looked to have the race in the bag last time until idling in the closing stages so with that in mind this extra two and a half furlongs would be a slight concern. He has negatives for just two of our six trends though so can’t be ruled out, with having only won twice over fences looking his main obstacle.

Trainer Colin Tizzard won this race for the first-time last year so it would be foolish to ignore their Robinsfirth. This ten-year-old does, however, return from a four-hundred-day absence so that would be the first thing those against him might look too. Having said that, he’s shown he can go well fresh before and the yard have been firing in winners during midweek. If close to his best, then he’d certainly be one for the shortlist but with three of our six stats against him the trends suggest he’s got a several negatives, most notably the fact that 93% of the last fifteen winners came here having had a recent run.

Last year’s runner-up Captain Redbeard is the one the trends give the best chance to though – he ticks ALL six! He gets in here off the same mark as last year but with Valtor in the race this year he actually carries two pounds less. He’s a dour stayer that acts on all ground but as well as ticking all our stats the key to him is his love for Haydock. His form figures at the course read an impressive 3-1-2-1-2-3, so based on the fact he’s yet to finish out of the top three from six previous runs at the Merseyside venue suggests he’ll give his supporters another cracking run for their money.

Of the rest, Ballydine gets in off a very low weight and James Bowen is an interesting jockey booking. He ticks four of the six trends but does fall down on only having won just once before over fences. Otago Trail represents the in-form Venetia Williams yard that have won this race twice in the past too. He flopped last time at Ascot but overall, he’s a consistent chaser that has finished in the top three in nine of his twelve starts over fences. The useful Hugh Nugent also takes off a handy seven pounds from the saddle so with that claim the negative weight trend actually turns into a positive. In short, with the yard in cracking order he’s hard to ignore and rates a big danger.

Every Haydock race covered live on ITV can be found on our Haydock Betting Tips, with runner by runner previews for each contest.