The fourth day at Royal Ascot features a pair of Group 1 races. The Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes are the feature contests, with the former seeing the return of Wesley Ward’s Campanelle. A titanic tussle is expected in the latter, as Mother Earth and Pretty Gorgeous renew hostilities in the Coronation.
We’ll have Royal Ascot tips for all seven races, but I’m eyeing up the competitive action for my outsiders. There are three horses I think are horrendously overpriced for their engagements, and you can find all of my analysis and tips below.
This isn’t a strong renewal of the Commonwealth Cup and I’m scratching my head to work out why ISABELLA GILES (80-1) is the price she is. She was mainly progressive as a juvenile, winning a Group 2 at Newmarket, before ending the year not seeing out the trip in the Fillies’ Mile. She was sent off at just 7-2 that day, such was the strength of her juvenile form.
Her form in 2021 hasn’t quite matched that standard, but I think people have been harsh on her. She was far too fresh on seasonal return at Newbury in the seven-furlong Fred Darling, but acquitted herself well against fair opposition. Lingfield saw her chasing a moderate pace, which wouldn’t have suited, and heavy ground was far from ideal at Haydock last time.
Returning to six furlongs on a sounder surface should see her in a much better light. She loves to race prominently, so will be in the ideal position throughout. Drawn in 10, James Doyle should be able to tack over to the favoured near-side and at enormous odds, I think she can sneak into the frame.
Breaking through at the second attempt as a juvenile, the best should be yet to come from SHE DO (40-1). Representing the in-form Roger Varian yard, she gained that aforementioned success at Doncaster over six furlongs. Strong at the finish, she hinted that she needed further when second under a penalty at Chelsmford on her final two-year-old start.
She made her return at Wolverhampton three weeks ago over seven furlongs, bumping into Glesga Girl, who quickened three lengths clear in the closing stages. That gives her something to find, but that rival is a general 12-1 and Varian’s charge should strip much fitter today.
A nine-pound pull with that rival will help matters, as will stepping up to the mile. On paper, she’s not bred to suit it, but she’s been strong at the finish over seven, including a run behind Dubai Fountain. Ray Dawson’s three-pound claim is another reason to be hopeful and at 40-1, I fancy her for the placings.
RAYMOND TUSK (22-1) will be familiar to regular followers of my outsiders column. I tipped him for the Jorvik Handicap at York last month, running a huge race to finish second at 40-1. Only beaten by a potentially group class horse, I think he’s got another big run in him for Alan King.
He’s steadily found his form in 2021 and that second at York was his best effort since finishing sixth in the November Handicap at Doncaster last November. He was off 108 for that Doncaster race and is six pounds lower for the Duke Of Edinburgh.
He’s at his best with a strong gallop to chase and with that in mind, this race will set up perfectly for him. This mark is achievable if he’s able to back up that York run and he wouldn’t be inconvenienced by any rain. Jim Crowley is a strong jockey booking and he certainly wouldn’t be a surprise winner of this big-field event.
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