Newmarket Falmouth Stakes Betting Preview, Tips and Trends

Newmarket Racecourse

The Falmouth Stakes is a Group 1 contest run over a mile, open to fillies and mares aged three years or older and has been contested by some of the sports’ finest. It is the feature race on day 2 of the Newmarket July Festival, staged on the July course which is a straight track better known as the ‘Bunbury Mile’.

The Falmouth is a valuable race for fillies and mares, so much so there has been three Irish winners and once French winner in the last ten years. Previous winners include the Irish raider Alpha Centauri (2018), who won 4 Group 1 races in her career and French superstar, Goldikova (2009) who recorded 14 Group 1 wins. Perhaps the most iconic renewal of the Falmouth Stakes was in 2013 when Elusive Kate bested 1000 Guineas heroine Sky Lantern by a neck, after surviving a lengthy stewards enquiry having drifted across the track.

You can find everything you need to know about the Falmouth Stakes below, from the thoughts and analysis of our experts, valuable stats and trends, free bets and our Falmouth tip.

Falmouth Stakes Runners and Riders

Terebellum

The John Gosden-trained filly was well supported to win on reappearance (Newmarket Rowley Mile) and coped well with the drop in trip in the Queen Anne when narrowly beaten by Circus Maximus. She didn’t find as much as looked likely on that occasion but she was against a hardened battler and with Magic Wand out, she ought to make amends.

One Master

Finished a close second in this race last year before reverting to sprinting. Back up in trip today but may prefer softer conditions and could be caught out by an improving, younger horse.

Nazeef

Impressive winner of Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot extended winning run to five. Looks a fast-improving filly and should be there or thereabouts.

Agincourt produced a career-best when a close second to Nazeef at Royal Ascot but looked well held and looks unlikely to reverse the placings with that rival. The 2018 1000 Guineas Heroine Billesdon Brook looks to be regressing and it would be a shock to see her back up a lacklustre performance 6 days ago, whilst Under The Stars looked outclassed in this year’s Guineas and could find this assignment too much.

Falmouth Stakes Tip

Terebellum

A mile Group 1 where there are questions about most. Terebellum didn’t find as much as looked likely in the Queen Anne last time out but that winner is a strong fighter so perhaps that shouldn’t be looked upon so harshly. The rain that has fallen is in her favour and now will make this more of a stamina test than would otherwise have been the case.

Falmouth Stakes Trends

  • 10 of the last 10 winners were aged 3 or 4
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run at least twice that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 110 or higher
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had won at least once race that season
  • 5 of the last 10 winners were the SP favourite

The rescheduled calendar in 2020 means we should take stats with a pinch of salt, however, they do still give a good guide as to what it takes to win the race.

The two horses that best fit the trends and Terebellum and Nazeef. Both runners are aged 4, have run at least twice this season and won a race. Both are trained by John Gosden, however, so it may be worth taking a market check before placing your bets.

Newmarket Free Bets

Get a head start with your bets this week by signing up to a bookmaker account and claiming a free bet. With an 8 race-card at Newmarket today ahead of an action-packed weekend, free bets can come in handy, especially with firms competing against one another to offer the best deals. Check out our Free Bets page for more offers.


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