JLT Hurdle (Long Walk Hurdle) Trends

Buveur D'Air wins the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle

It’s the last Saturday’s racing before Christmas and we’ve plenty to look forward to with a cracking card at Ascot to see us into the festive break.

Four live races to take in on ITV, with the JLT Hurdle – the Long Walk Hurdle to seasoned racing fans – getting the star billing.

Run over three miles and one furlong, this is another key stepping stone for the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, with Thistlecrack (2015) the last horse to land both races in the same season. Plus, in the last sixteen years, we’ve seen five horses that were successful in this race go onto land that day three Cheltenham contest

In recent year’s, it’s not been too bad a race for favourite backers with nine of the last sixteen (56%) winning, while this Saturday we have the added spice of seeing the last two winners of the race – Unowhatimeanharry (2016) and Sam Spinner (2017) – lining-up again. The 2017 winner – Sam Spinner will be looking follow in the hoof prints of Reve De Sivola, Big Buck’s and Baracouda, who were all repeat winners of this prize since 2000.

You can get more help finding the winner of the JLT Hurdle (Registered as the Long Walk Hurdle) on our ITV Tips page.

Plus, to help pin-point the best winning profile of the 2018 Long Walk Hurdle we are on-hand with some key trends and statistics.

We hope they help you find the winner, but if you fancy a horse that we’ve not featured below then simply apply these stats to that runner.

16 of the last 16 had raced within the last seven weeks
14 of the last 16 placed in the top three last time out
13 of the last 16 winners aged 8 or younger
12 of the last 16 winners were French-bred
12 of the last 16 won at least four times over hurdles
10 of the last 16 raced at Newbury last time out

Trends – Key Runners

Call Me Lord ❌✅✅✅✅❌

Unowhatimeanharry ✅✅❌❌✅✅

Agrapart ✅❌✅✅✅❌

Paisley Park ✅✅✅❌❌❌

Sam Spinner ✅❌✅❌✅✅

Trends Analysis:

Call Me Lord will be looking to give trainer Nicky Henderson only his second success in this race but there is every reason to think he can do just that. This five-year-old has had many entries in recent weeks so is clearly ready to rumble and after a sixteen length romp over two miles and five furlongs, when last seen at Sandown back in April, then this step up in trip looks a good move. It’s no secret connections feel he’s a better horse going right-handed, so he’ll get that here, while the soft ground will not inconvenience. He’s won five of his nine starts over hurdles but at just five years-old there should also be a lot more to come. Our six trends give him a leading chance too with four on his side – not having a recent outing and not running at Newbury last time out are the stats against him. Those looking to take him on might also want to know that eleven of the last sixteen winners had won over at least three miles (hurdles) in the past – something this five-year-old is yet to achieve. Having said that, he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past and with the Henderson horses to continue to be in good form then it’s hard to knock his chance.

Unowhatimeanharry was the 2016 winner of this race and after a return to form last time out to win the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury then he’s a big player. Yes, at ten-years-old he’s not getting any younger and will be looking to become the oldest horse to win this since Deano’s Beano in 2002 – but it can be done. On a plus, the Harry Fry camp boast an impressive 41% strike-rate with their hurdles at the track, while our stats give him a decent say with only his age and not being French-bred looking against him. However, despite only managing third in this race last season, he’s a proven winner of this prize that turned back the clock with an impressive victory last time out. He’s one to not rule out.

Agrapart is a horse that seems to save his best for soft or heavy ground so there is every chance he’ll get that here. He returned last month with a fair fourth at Aintree on unsuitable quicker ground but with that run under his belt should be a lot fitter this time. With only four hurdles wins from seventeen then he’s arguably a horse that doesn’t win as much as he should but, on his day and in his favoured soft conditions he’s a useful staying hurdler. He’s also another that ticks four of our six trends, with not finishing in the top three last time out, one of those as a potential negative. Overall, he’s probably got a tiny bit to prove but should the ground turn to heavy then he’d certainly enter calculations.

Paisley Park has shot onto the staying hurdle scene this season with eye-catching wins at Aintree and Haydock, plus at just six-years-old and with only seven career runs should have more to come. He’s won on soft conditions in the past but it’s worth noting that his recent two successes came on good ground. Of the horses we feature he does, however, fall down on the most trends (50%) with not being a French-bred, not having won at least four times over hurdles and having not raced at Newbury as the negatives. In short, he looks a promising recruit to this division but does seem as if he’ll need to improve again.

Recent winners of this race have quite a good record so last year’s hero Sam Spinner will be hoping to uphold that trend. He powered onto the Staying Hurdle division last term when winning this prize last term but since then hasn’t quite fulfilled his potential when a beaten favourite in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He also looked beaten last time out in the Long Distance Hurdle when unseating his rider so, all-in-all, does have plenty to prove at present. Yes, the return to Ascot could spark him back into life and being another that ticks four of our six trends then it’s hard to totally discount the current champ. Having said that, based on his lastest poor showing and the fact he’s not won a race since winning this tweleve months ago suggests he’s on a recovery mission.

Every Ascot race covered live on ITV can be found on our Ascot Racing Tips page, with runner by runner previews for each contest.

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