ITV Outsiders: Owen bids to follow up 18-1 winner with 1733-1 double

Owen's Outsiders

Thursday promises to be a treat, as Newmarket kicks off its July Festival. There are four pattern races, including the Group 3 July and Princess Of Wales’s Stakes, both live on ITV3. We’ll have ITV Racing tips for all five Thursday races, but I’m hoping to build on an 18-1 winner from Tuesday.

Exchequer provided me with a super start to the week at prohibitive odds and there’s plenty of opportunities on Thursday to build on that. I’ve found two horses who I believe can out-run their odds and they can be found below!

2.25 Newmarket – Tattersalls July Stakes

This is a very competitive renewal of the July Stakes and I’m surprised to see SAM MAXIMUS (33-1) at such a huge price. Trained by Tom Dascombe, he made a winning debut at Haydock in June, defeating a useful field despite doing plenty wrong.

Conceding a penalty at Pontefract in the Spindrifter last time, he never had a chance to show his true ability. He was caught in a pocket throughout the straight and didn’t find a gap until the race was over. That effort was far more encouraging than the bare figures suggest, with the winner looking a useful prospect.

Improvement is certainly needed now he steps into Group 2 company, but it should be forthcoming. He should be granted a strong pace to chase and given his connections, he’s likely to keep progressing with each racecourse visit. At odds of 33-1, he looks to have been severely underestimated.

3.00 Newmarket – Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap

Winning three of his four opening starts, I don’t think it’s fair to give up on SEVEN BROTHERS (50-1) just yet. Kevin Ryan’s charge won his opening two starts as a juvenile, with his sole two-year-old defeat coming in a Group 2 at York.

He made a winning seasonal/handicap debut at York in April, toughing things out to beat Popmaster, but he’s come up short in two subsequent big-field events at Newmarket and York. Those runs were disappointing, but he missed the break on both occasions and lost all chance as a result.

Much of his chance depends on the start and he must break better today to play a leading chance. There can be plenty of hope he’ll do just that, however. The fitting of the blinkers should help his concentration and he’s also drawn stall one. Off just a pound higher than his York mark, he could easily play a leading role at 50s.

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