Goodwood Cup Trends

The Group One Goodwood Cup is the clear highlight on the opening day of the Glorious Goodwood Festival where some of the best staying flat horses on the planet do battle over two miles at the West Sussex venue.

Our Goodwood Cup Tips can help you find the winner of the race.

The contest is also part of the British Champions Series, where any horse that has already won the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup would have a chance of landing a one-million-pound bonus should they also win this race and then the Lonsdale Cup at York’s Ebor Festival in August.

This year we’ve got a contender for the Weatherbys Hamilton Stayers’ Million bonus – step forward Stradivarius.

This John Gosden-trained four-year-old has already won the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup this season, so can he add the third-leg of the four in the Goodwood Cup and keep the bonus dream alive?

Well, Stradivarius is actually the current champ for this race so there is every reason to think this improving stayer can defend his crown, but with another year on his back – does he fit the key Goodwood Cup trends?

To help pin-point the winner of the 2018 Goodwood Cup we are on-hand with some useful key trends and statistics – use these to find the best profiles of past winners.

There are always many trends to apply to each race but to keep things simple we’ve picked out four standout stats and applied these to the main 2018 Goodwood Cup runners. We hope they help you find the winner!

• 14 of the last 14 winners ran within the last 45 days
• 14 of the last 16 winners were placed (top 3) in their last race
• 12 of the last 16 winners were aged five or older
• 12 of the last 16 winners had won a Group One or Two race before

Trends – Key Runners

Stradivarius ✅✅❌✅

Order Of St George ✅❌✅✅

Torcedor ✅✅✅❌

Idaho ✅❌✅✅

Call To Mind ❌✅❌✅

Desert Skyline  ✅❌❌✅

Trends Analysis:

The current champ – Stradivarius – has been all the rage for this race since landing the Ascot Gold Cup back in June and with three of our four key trends on his side then he’s got a lot going for him. At just four-years-old it’s only the age stat that he falls down on with 75% of the last sixteen winners aged five or older. However, he kicked this trend into touch last year as a three-year-old so it wouldn’t be too much of a concern. Having raced forty days ago, plus being placed (won) last time out and already a proven winner at this level, then this John Gosden-trained runner has big ticks against our other three stats. A small factor that some people might see as a negative is that his regular jockey – Frankie Dettori – is not riding due to a suspension, but really this shouldn’t be a concern as his deputy – Andrea Atzeni – has ridden the horse twice before and he’s won both times! With the continued hot spell, he’s likely to get his favoured quick ground and after taking this race last year we know he handles the sometimes-tricky Goodwood track. At just four-years-old and with only ten career runs (five wins) there’s also every chance we’ve not even seen the best of this talented stayer yet and if kept sound could easily be mopping up these big cup contests for years to come. He’ll be looking to follow in the hoof-prints of Big Orange, who won back-to-back runnings of the race in 2015 and 2016, while the last horse before Big Orange to successfully defend his Goodwood Cup crown was the popular Double Tigger in the nineties. It’s actually been a good race for past winners overall – in the last twenty-one runnings we’ve seen five previous Goodwood Cup winners take the race again, which is a fair 24% strike-rate.

Order Of St George is certainly one of the alternatives away from the hot favourite. He was four lengths behind Stradivarius at Ascot last time, but some feel he didn’t get the best of runs in the closing stages that day. Let’s make no mistake, he’s a high-class stayer in this grade and a past Ascot Gold Cup winner. He’s landed thirteen of his twenty-five starts and finished in the top two nineteen times – in a nutshell, he rarely runs a bad race! Looking at our four main trends, he gets the thumbs-up for three – with not being placed in the top three last time out as the only potential negative. He’ll be looking to become the first six-year-old to win since 2009 and the fourth since 1998. It’s also a race his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has won twice in the past – both times with his top stayer Yeats – but the most recent was now ten years ago. Trip and ground are fine, but surprisingly this would be his first run at Goodwood so it remains to be seen if he’ll take to the track. Nine of the last sixteen winners of this race had run at the course previously.

Another horse that is closely-matched with Stradivarius and Order Of St George is the Jessie-Harrington-trained Torcedor. This six-year-old was last seen running third in the Ascot Gold Cup – two places behind Stradivarius and one slot ahead of Order Of St George. He’s rated just a pound behind last year’s winner, while is another consistent sort in these races – he’s raced eighteen times (5 wins) and been placed in the top three on twelve occasions. Our trends suggest he’s a big player and another decent option away from the market leader. Like the two horses already mentioned, he also ticks three of our four main stats, but he does fall down on a fairly big one – he’s yet to win a Group One or Two race. Yes, he’s hit the crossbar several times in those grades but the best he’s done so far is a couple of Group Three successes. Trip and ground will suit, however, he’s also another that is yet to taste the Goodwood track.

We’ve already mentioned one runner from the Aidan O’Brien camp but there is every chance his Idaho could also turn up here. This five-year-old is, however, on a bit of a recovery mission after flopping in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. He did sweat a lot before that race so some may feel he had an excuse, but that is something he’s done in all of this last three races. He would need to bounce-back to the form that saw him win the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May, but with three of the four stats on his side a case can be made for this five-year-old. Recent form (fifth) is the only one he falls down on, however, he would have two other fairly big trends against him as he’s never raced at Goodwood and is also still to win over two miles (or further) – ten of the last sixteen Goodwood Cup winners had proven themselves over at least two miles in the past.

We could have a Royal runner too. Call To Mind will be looking to give trainer William Haggas his first win in this race, but the Queen is no stranger to landing this prize after winning it in back-to-back years in 1965 and 1966 with two different horses (Apprentice and Gaulois). Call To Mind is a bit of a globe-trotter these days as he was last seen winning the Belmont Cup over in America back in June. Before that, he was a fair third behind Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup in May – beaten just over three lengths. The step up to two miles last time clearly suited and could easily get a lot closer to the current champ this time. Quick ground is a plus after winning on a firm surface last time, plus he’s also a proven course winner after taking the Listed March Stakes over one mile and six furlongs last August. With just nine career runs he’s got scope for improvement, especially now we know he stays this two-mile trip well. The trends see him fall down on two – age and running more than 45 days ago – but his proven track form could outweigh these. James Doyle, who will be looking for his first win in this race, takes the ride.

Desert Skyline is the final runner we are going to look at. This four-year-old hails from the David Elsworth yard and will have the champion jockey – Silvestre De Sousa – riding. He flopped in the Ascot Gold Cup last time out, when last of nine, but clearly didn’t stay that two-and-a-half-mile trip. Back to two miles here will help and would have a squeak on his three-length second to Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup in May. He’s was a good winner of the Group Two Doncaster Cup last season so is certainly capable in these big staying races, but does he win enough? With only one success from this last eleven races the answer is probably – no. However, it is worth pointing out he was a fair third in this race last year – beaten just over five lengths – and if reproducing that level of form would certainly be one for the place players.

Every Glorious Goodwood race covered live on ITV can be found on our Goodwood Tips page with runner by runner previews for each contest.