Coronation Cup Trends

Cracksman

The Coronation Cup is a famous Group 1 race which was first run in 1902 and is run on the same day as the Epsom Oaks. Previous winners include Highland Reel, Yeats and St Nicholas Abbey who won it three years in a row. This race requires a mixture of stamina and speed as well as the ability to handle the tricky course that is Epsom and takes a very good horse to win. Winners of this race often have ambitions of winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and that looks likely to be the case this year as well. To narrow down the possible winners and make some sense of the race we will look at some key statistics and trends.

See our Coronation Cup tips or read on to see the trends for the big race.

Coronation Cup Trends

  • Punters heaven – 8 of the last 12 favourites have won
  • Certain ages dominate – 11 of the last 12 winners were between four and six years old
  • Cream rises to the top – 8 of the last 12 winners were rated 119 or higher
  • Group form is key – 12 of the last 12 winners had won a Group 1 or 2 before
  • Match fitness helps – 11 of the last 12 winners had had at least one run that season

Trends – Key Runners

Cracksman ✅✅✅✅✅

Hawkbill ❌✅✅✅✅

Idaho ❌✅✅✅✅

Barsanti ❌✅❌❌✅

The excellent Cracksman passes the trends test with flying colours here and that only adds to his already very obvious claims here. He is the class act in the field by some way and will take some stopping.

Trends Analysis

This revolves around Cracksman and if everything goes smoothly it is very difficult to see him beaten here. He is officially eight pounds clear of his nearest rival and was excellent on his seasonal debut when he had last year’s Arc second behind him as well as this season’s Lockinge winner Rhododendron. He was devastating when completing a hat-trick in the Great Voltigeur, Prix Niel and Champion Stakes and looks to be getting better and better as he matures. He was an excellent third in the English Derby and an even better second in the Irish equivalent and all his form from last season is working out well. He will likely be one of the stars of the flat season and should have stiffer tests than this, this looks his for the taking on all known form and he could turn this into a procession.

The main threat to John Gosden’s star is former Eclipse winner Hawkbill who was very good when winning the Sheema Classic in Meydan not long ago. He is a dangerous horse from the front and has plenty of talent which he has displayed at the top level on multiple occasions. He caused an upset in the Eclipse when beating The Gurkha and will be trying to do the same here though probably faces a calibre of horse in Cracksman that he has yet to encounter. He may run a big race but it’d be some effort were he to lower the colours of Anthony Oppenheimer’s colt.

Aidan O’Brien has won this a remarkable seven times since 2007 including last year with Highland Reel and will be looking to repeat the trick with a full brother to last year’s winner in Idaho. He is a beautifully bred horse who was second in the 2016 Derby and has held a high level of form since then which has included a win at Royal Ascot and a very unfortunate defeat in the St. Leger. He was slightly disappointing towards the end of last season but looked back to his best when winning the Ormonde Stakes at Chester last time and like his brother will probably get better with age. This is a stiff task however and he has a chunk to find with Cracksman.

Roger Varian had the winner of this in 2016 with Postponed and runs one in the same colours here in the shape of Barsanti. He has form which ties in with Idaho as he was second to him in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and he held on well to beat subsequent winner Mirage Dancer last time. This is a great deal tougher however and he has a stone to find with Cracksman on official ratings.

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