The Cesarewitch, the second leg of the autumn double from Newmarket after the Cambridgeshire last weekend, follows on from the Dewhurst in what is a top quality day’s racing live on ITV Racing this Saturday.
Staged over two-miles-two on the Rowley course, it’s a gruelling test for which thirty one are due to line up. Willie Mullins landed the race last year with Low Sun and his Buildmeupbuttercup heads the market, racing off exactly the same mark as when denied by a head at Leopardstown last month.
She and along with two runners from the Sir Mark Prescott yard in Land Of Oz and Timoshenko are rightly near the front of the market as the local trainer bids for his first win in the race.
Whilst it’s hard to knock their claims, betting at single-digit prices in races with upwards of thirty runners doesn’t float my boat. In a race that has seen winners at 66/1 in 2012 and 2013 and 50/1 in 2015, there has to be room for a couple of outsiders, particularly with most bookmakers likely to offer upwards of seven places.
Here are four who are capable of outrunning their odds. Make sure to make use of our tips and analysis over the weekend, as well as our free bets.
Alan King’s dual purpose seven-year-old has enjoyed a season to remember, placing in the Chester Cup before winning the Northumberland Plate. He followed that with a very encouraging effort in the Marsh Cup behind classy stayer Withhold, staying on to finish fourth over two-miles.
He again demonstrated his love of testing conditions when finishing fourth in the Prix du Cadran at Longchamp a week ago on very soft ground, only five lengths behind the 118 rated Dee Ex Bee. He’s due to go up five pounds for that career best effort.
Turned out quickly, he races off a very dangerous mark, particularly combined with the fact that the talented Angus Villiers claims seven. With him onboard he only has to carry 9-3, only two more than he carried to victory at Newcastle in June. He’s too well treated to ignore, and as a winner of the Cesarewitch Trial in 2017, he has the course form to boot.
The son of leading sire Dubawi marked himself out as a stayer to follow when finishing fourth in the 2017 edition behind Withhold. He had form figures of 11342 in 2018 before returning from a 375 day break to go down by a head to Who Dares Wins in June.
His usual reliability has somewhat escaped him in two runs since, finishing eleventh and twelfth at Goodwood and York respectively this summer. He has been off the track for fifty-two days and returns to action in a first time visor.
Those factors look enough to inspire a comeback. If doing so, he’s very well treated now a pound lower than when second at Newcastle three runs back. He’s two from two on good-to-soft so conditions hold no fears. Surely 40/1 underestimates his claims.
There are few arriving here in better form than Ian Williams’ gelding who has won his last two starts. He is massively overpriced in comparison to the favourite Buildmeupbuttercup, whom he finished jusst over three lengths behind at Ascot in June. He’s now five pounds better off with that rival and is available at five times the price.
He struggled after that run at both Newcastle and on the July Course here before returning to form on soft ground the last twice. An easy winner in France, he followed that with a battling success from a progressive rival in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock.
With Cieren Fallon once more onboard, whose ride last month was the greatest example of his talent, he gets a handy three taken off his back. Added to that, he’s three pounds ahead of the assessor under a penalty. He ranks a far more attractive bet than Willie Mullins’ mare as a result.
Another from the Alan King yard, for whom he’s booked the in-form Irish jockey Shane Foley who won the Cheveley Park here last month. His gelding finished a distant sixteenth in this last year, however that came on unsuitably quick ground.
He’s thrived on testing ground this season, second at Newbury before bolting up in the Chester Plate on heavy, a career best performance for which he was raised a lenient five pounds.
He has ran well off this mark of 93 three times since, narrowly ahead of Who Dares Wins in the Marsh Cup at Newbury last time out. Any further rain would only further enhance his claims in what looks sure to a true test of stamina.