One of the most competitive handicaps of the season, the Cambridgeshire is devilishly difficult to dissect. Raced over the 1m 1f distance, a maximum of field of 35 will contest for the £61,848 prize. A race where many connections will agonizingly miss out, it’s a true spectacle watching the runners stampede down the Newmarket straight.
Newmarket will be part of a six-race programme on ITV4, with a pair of Group 1 contests headlining the day. The Cheveley Park and Middle Park are the races in question, with Sacred Bridge defending her unbeaten record. There’s also a pair of races of competitive handicaps from Haydock.
As with so many of these big field handicaps, a look at the trends of the race can help point us towards the winner. See all of the key trends for this year’s renewal below.
Unsurprisingly, seven of the last ten winners were sent off at double-figure odds. That includes Dolphin Vista at 50-1 in 2017, with Majestic Dawn (2020) and Prince Of Jhanne (2011) both winning at odds of 40-1. The morale of the story? Don’t be put off if your fancy is at bigger odds.
A higher draw seems to help in the Cambridgeshire, with seven of the last ten being drawn in stall 20 or above. In fact, the last five renewals have been won by higher drawn runners. That bodes well for market leads Uncle Bryn, Magical Morning and Anmaat, who are drawn in 30, 35 and 22 respectively.
The Cambridgeshire has historically been a good race for younger horses, with just three five-year-olds winning in the last ten years. Again, this bodes well for the market leaders, with the vast majority being three or four-year-olds.
As with any of the bigger handicaps, carrying less weight is an obvious advantage. Since 2011, just Educate (9st 9lb), Spark Plug (9st 4lb) and Wissahickon (9st 5lb) have carried a weight larger than 8st 10lb.
This might not seem like a big number, but given the vast majority of runners will be ridden by a professional, three apprentice-ridden winners is a worthwhile statistic. The best chance for those ridden by apprentices is Raise You, who will be ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle. He bids to give Ireland it’s first win in the race since 1999.
The trainer to follow in terms of the Cambridgeshire is Marcus Tregoning. He’s sent eight runners to the race, with both Bronze Angel winning on a pair of occasions. He’s also had a trio of places and that equates to a +17.00 level stakes profit if you backed all his runners. His flag will be flown by Power Of Darkness in 2021.
No horse fits all the trends, but Data Protection fits four out of six and is a huge price for William Muir & Chris Grassick. Drawn in stall 29, he’ll be carrying 8st 4lb, with Alan Perrse taking off a further seven pounds. At a current price of 66-1, he’s a big outsider, but that fits the trends just perfectly.
He’s been well beaten in his last two starts, but that isn’t his true running and he’s just a pound above his last winning mark as a result. He’s tried in the first-time cheekpieces now and this would be the ideal time for him to bounce back to his very best.
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