Best Cheltenham Festival Races For Outsiders

Cheltenham Festival - Thursday

Given the competitive nature of the racing at the Cheltenham Festival, there are plenty of races where outsiders have a strong record. Naturally, the handicaps take up the majority of these races where outsiders rule supreme and with the weights now announced for those it seems the perfect time to find the five best races for outsiders at the Cheltenham Festival and some who look interesting at this stage for those races in 2019.

5 – Champion Bumper

Three of the last four years have gone to horses at 7/1 or shorter but in general, this is a race where the outsiders have done well. It’s the race full of the least exposed horses of the week and with them improving at different rates, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see some shocks happen.

50% of the winners in the last two decades have been 14/1 or bigger including Cue Card who won this at 40/1 in 2010 and Monsignor who landed odds of 50/1 back in 1999.

2019 – Thyme Hill was only a neck behind Master Debonair at this track in the autumn, yet is available at nine points bigger. He gave the impression that day that he has plenty of stamina, eating up the hill. This could suit him beautifully for the yard who won this in 2011.

4 – Coral Cup

Always one of the biggest fields of the week, sixteen of the last twenty winners have been a double-figure price. In such a big field, there is, of course, a disclaimer that there aren’t many of the field who are single figure prices but three winners at 33/1 a 25/1, 20/1 and four at 16/1 in the last twenty years has this on the list.

Medinas and What’s Up Boys were two of those winners with the latter producing one of the most remarkable finishes seen at the Cheltenham Festival to claim his Coral Cup.

2019 – Early Doors ticks a lot of the recent trends as an Irish trained, French Bred second season hurdler. Two runs this season have been chasing home Apple’s Jade and he was third in the Martin Pipe in 2018 when well supported.

3 – Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir

Amateur riders take centre stage here in a race that has only seen 11/20 at double-figure odds but they have included 40/1 X2, 33/1 X2 and 20/1 X2 in that time. Recent years haven’t been quite so decent for outsider backers despite Domesday Book landing one of the 40/1 wins in 2017.

Perhaps this is due to the unquestionable quality that there is in the amateur ranks but a look at the placed horses in the last five years sees eight of the fifteen at 14/1+ including at 40/1, 28/1 and 20/1 so they are hitting the frame in this contest with regularity.

2019 – De Rasher Counter was put up by Emma Lavelle at the start of the season as a horse to follow, with his form improving over fences. His last run when giving away six pounds to the pair around him has been strongly franked since and he can do better with the longer trip.

2 – Brown Advisory Plate

Two winning favourites in the last decade but they are the minority in a race that has been a bookies benefit in the main. Four of the last ten winners have been 25/1 or bigger, including the 50/1 scorer Carrickboy in 2013.

He is outdone by Mister McGoldrick who landed odds of 66/1 when he came home in front in this contest in 2008. 50% of the winners in the last twenty years have been 16/1 or above making this one of the toughest races for punters at the entire meeting.

2019 – Crievehill has not been suited to three miles the last twice but has caught the eye on more than one occasion this season. Only a pound higher than when second on his seasonal debut, the step back down to this trip looks the smart move.

1 – Fred Winter

A relatively new race at the Festival, only run for the first time in 2005, so just fourteen renewals of this contest so far. Despite that, this has been a contest that has been a real struggle for punters.

Six of the last seven winners have been 25/1 or bigger, including the last two years at 33/1. Eight of the fourteen winners have been 20/1 or bigger, with it hard to get a handle on the relative merits of juvenile hurdlers in a handicap.

Gordon Elliott has had 25/1 and 33/1 winners, Paul Nicholls a 25/1 and Nicky Henderson a 40/1 in the last seven years so it’s clearly a race where prices shouldn’t put off backers, especially from the bigger yards.

2019 – Belargus was an eye-catching winner of a traditionally decent contest at Ascot. The way he travelled was notably smoothly – although a shade keen – with potential progression for a stronger pace. He wouldn’t be this price for a more notable yard.

The above are personal thoughts on outsiders who can go well in these races, not official tips.

Please Gamble Responsibly