It is a jam-packed afternoon of racing, it’s not called ‘Super Saturday’ for nothing! A whopping 10 races covered by our ITV Racing Tips, with the highlight being the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket as well as supporting action from Ascot and York.
Today’s Best Bet from the 10 televised races on ITV this afternoon is Beat The Bank in the Summer Mile at Ascot. He’s eight wins from nine starts at Group 2 level or below and even though he has to carry a penalty here, that consistency will stand him in really good stead and it shows just how rock solid he is at this grade.
Despite not winning last time, his second in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot is probably one of his best performances to date. Clearly in great form with himself, a repeat of that effort would likely be enough to win this contest.
Our big priced horse to watch today is Francis Xavier at York. He’s on a steep upward curve having won 4 of his 7 career starts, not quite hitting the heights in Listed company last time, this is a much more realistic level for him.
Given his rate of progression and the fact he’s back in a handicap today, this previous course and distance winner could well outrun his hefty odds.
Over the past 5 seasons, Charlie Appleby leads the training ranks on the July Course at Newmarket with 44 wins. James Doyle heads the jockey standings at the track for the same period with 53 wins.
Add to that the pairs 29% strike rate when combining at the venue over the past 5 years, it’s well worth noting their runners today. Plus if you put them all together, it makes for a very tasty accumulator.
Because people see a horses’ most recent form figure being a ‘1’, last time out winners can often be under-priced. But in the case of some trainers, they can be over-priced. Below are some trainers who have excellent strike rates and a positive profit/loss figure with horses that won last time, over the past two years.
Tom Dascombe – 25% strike rate & +16.80 to level stakes
Jane Chapple-Hyam – 25% strike rate & +31.83 to level stakes
Nick Littmoden – 40% strike rate & +16.41 to level stakes
*odds best available at the time of writing