The Doyle factor: Lingfield mount smashed in from 40-1 into 14-1

The Hollie Doyle factor is in full swing at Lingfield this afternoon. A huge gamble on one of her rides has seen the price tumbling from 40/1 into 14/1. Her mount halved in price last night and the money has just kept on flowing this morning to see it cut further.

That 14/1 is clinging on in just one place only at time of writing, bet365 out on their own as the biggest price. No other bookmaker are bigger than 11/1 so that price looks set to disappear.

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1.30 Lingfield – Cazoo Novice Stakes

The gamble is on Desert Pioneer and a quick glance at the form shows a pair of unplaced efforts so 40/1 last night was no surprise to most. Beaten twenty and then thirty lengths, he has not got within sniffing distance of the each way money on either of those starts but there are some key factors to consider.

First of those is the form of the James Ferguson yard. Three winners and two seconds from his last ten runners in this country shows a stable who are in flying form. Secondly, the two runs so far from his charge have both come over a mile, not showing the speed to get involved. He steps up four furlongs in trip for his third start and that has the potential to make the difference.

His pedigree is that of a miler so it is not a surprise that that is where connections started him out. Soft ground on his Windsor debut didn’t look to suit and they went hard early last time at Kempton and he lacked the pace to go the gallop. Finally, his dam is related to some middle distance horses and a four-time hurdles winner so he is worth the try over this new trip.

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