Goodwood Golden Mile Tips & Betting Preview

Competitive doesn’t even start to sum up this race with winners at odds of up to 25/1 in the last ten years and a 20/1 shock in 2015 as Belgian Bill (18/1) carried nine stone three to success for George Baker and jockey Pat Cosgrave. As he is entered to try to double up this year it makes sense to start with him especially when you notice that he races off the same handicap mark of 102 which must mean he has some kind of chance today. Admittedly he cannot be getting any better at the age of eight, and he hasn’t won in seven races since, but he clearly loves it round here.

As the big guns in Newmarket flex their muscles Yorkshire trainer Tim Easterby has been quietly going about his business with 42 winners already this season and close to £400,000 in prize money won. He took on One Word More (14/1 Each Way) from Charlie Hills in April last year and instantly picked up a return with a seven-furlong win at Thirsk off a handicap rating of 92 but since he has been put up all they have collected are four places and the money that goes with them. His last two runs really caught the eye with two third places at York and off the same rating today as when three-quarters of a length behind Home Cummins last time he has to arrive here with a great chance at a big price.

The early betting suggests that Franklin D (3/1) is the one the punters want to be on, and who can blame them after Michael Bell’s four-year-old son of Medaglia d’Oro hacked up by an easy six lengths in a similar handicap at Newmarket on the 16^th of this month. The trip is the same today and the going is currently expected to remain on the fast side of good which is ideal, and with a three pound penalty he is officially ten pounds well in at the weights (he will be put up to 109 after today), which has been noticed by Ryan Moore who was snapped up early. He’s obviously well in but he’s a very short price in a huge field (22 runners) and having his first run at Goodwood. He’s never been turned out this quickly before (last time he was turned out after 22 days he ran poorly) and while he’s clearly the one to beat there’s better value opposing him given potential trouble in running.

Ismail Mohammed is one of racing’s under rated trainers yet does remarkably well with his small string and he has an interesting each way alternative in Jailawi (22/1) who won on his return from a long lay-off of 21 months with a neck win at Lingfield on the all-weather, staying on well to get to the front lose home. Next time out at Sandown he was expected to “bounce” as they often do after a classy return from injury but he only went under by a short head to Chevallier (who was receiving over a stone), and if he can improve again as I think he can, then even another five pounds from the handicapper may not stop him being competitive with Silvestre De Sousa taking the ride.

Lastly, however many times I look up and down this field I am strangely drawn to Charlie Appleby’s Outlaw Country (25/1) who has had three career starts for a third at Newmarket, a maiden win at Leicester, and a second to Secret Brief back at Newmarket – in October 2014. Although a big price here on his first run in 21 months I noted that his other longer term entries are all in Group races suggesting he is held in some regard at home by Godolphin, and if there is a dark horse here capable of pulling off a shock the son of Teofilo may well be it.