4.10pm Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 28/10/2016

The fifth race on the card at Newmarket on Friday is a Class 3 fillies handicap over 1m4f. Read our full race preview for our experts’ betting tips.

IN SUMMARY: Graceland is usually battling out the finish but finds one too good for her too often, so it’s hard to have much faith in her for the win. We side with DAWN HORIZONS who was a shade disappointing when sent off favourite at Goodwood back in August, but that was still a very creditable run and we think it’s worth sticking with this very progressive William Haggas filly. She has won twice at 1m3f+ trips in decisive fashion and fresh from a break is the one to beat. Hestina stays the trip well and we expect her to push our selection the most.

1 GRACELAND – Has finished in the top three on 13 occasions, but in 20 runs only two of them have yielded wins. Although both of them wins have come over today’s distance, arguably her better runs have been over further, one being when narrowly beaten last time out by a Haggas filly Daphne. Has been nudged up a 1lb for that but won’t be far away.

2 JELLY MONGER – Was highly tried early on in her career over shorter trips and although not winning on the flat since debut, her mark suffered for that. However, she races off a mark of 83 (has previously been as high as 96) and is fit from 3 hurdle races over the past two months, one where she landed a win at Fontwell. The step up in trip will suit but still has a bit too much to prove back on the flat.

3 LOVELY STORY – Still yet to win a race but has been on the premises on more than one occasion. After some creditable runs in France she was given a mark of 90 on her British debut and finished 3rd in a race that John Gosden’s California went on to win. Has struggled since though, finishing last in a Windsor Class 3 event and midfield in an ordinary Kempton handicap, easily opposed.

4 PERSUN – Back below her last winning mark, but steps up to 1m4f (started off at sprint trips) for the first time and nothing yet has suggested that is a positive move. Running creditably lately without looking like a win is imminent anytime soon.

5 DAWN HORIZONS – Was given too much to do on debut when staying on eye-catchingly to finish 5th of 13. Improved markedly for that experience and the step up to 1m4f, when taking a Doncaster maiden in which she had recent dual winner London Prize nearly 10 lengths behind. Followed that up with another success before finishing a staying on 3rd last time out. Should be plenty more to come and is the leading contender.

6 HESTINA – A mark of 81 could underestimate this Peter Chapple-Hyam filly and she has to go on the shortlist. Won her four runner maiden at Beverley at short odds in good style and then was outclassed in two harder races after. Was a decent 2nd at Leicester earlier this month, respected on the back of that.

7 DORA’S FIELD – A maiden after 8 races and the form of her last two runs doesn’t read that well. Ran well when 2nd at Beverley in July when just beaten after staying on, but this step up in class should prove too much for her to handle.

myracing Forecast Prices: 2/1 Dawn Horizons, 7/2 Hestina, 4/1 Graceland, 7/1 Lovely Story, 8/1 Persun, 12/1 Jelly Monger, 14/1 Dora’s Field