4.10pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 20/12/2016

Fourteen horses go to post for today‘s Nursery Handicap at Kempton worth £2,911 to the winner. Read on for our expert’s thoughts and betting tips.

IN SUMMARY: AFRICAN BEAT should take a bit of stopping in this and John Gosden’s Cape Cross filly is the one to be on. She was a bit closer to the pace than she would have liked on here last visit to this track and ridden with more restraint she can score today for her in form yard. Bailey’s Apprentice and Quothquan should also run well at bigger prices and can make the frame in what should be a competitive race.

1 African Beat – Three runs so far for the yard and improved to win a Class 5 maiden at Wolverhampton on second start last month. Didn’t beat much that day and fourth last time over C&D kept to the same grade. Got outpaced at the end of that race and if held on to a bit longer, she can have a big say in this with more improvement likely from a good draw in Stall 5.

2 Suspect Package – Three runs for the yard so far and has shown signs of ability. Only fifth of 11 in a Class 5 maiden at Wolverhampton last time out and needs to improve now handicapping.

3 Upgrade – Makes his polytrack debut today after seven runs for the yard this year. Placed on three occasions and only 1lb lower for this than his runner up effort at Newcastle three starts ago. Only sixth of 7 at that venue on his last start and others look stronger today for win purposes following that.

4 Spirit Of Belle – Three runs so far for the yard and produced a career best in a Class 5 maiden at this course in October behind the smart looking Pivoine from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Makes his handicap debut from a mark of 73 and one to watch unless the market speaks in his favour.

5 Emenem – Has shown steady improvement in five runs this year culminating in a win over 7f at this course thirteen days ago. Won well that day and gone up 6lb accordingly. Jockey booking a plus but needs another career best from Stall 14.

6 Mullarkey – Six runs so far including once at this course over 7f and placed only twice. AW form so far uninspiring and hard to fancy for win purposes today against a few of these.

7 Quothquan – Sole career win came in his fifth start at Windsor in September, staying on well to win a similar race on turf by 1 ½ lengths. Didn’t fare too badly when a close third over C&D twenty days ago and needs to improve further if he is to trouble African Beat in this. Place claims.

8 Pobbles – Four runs so far up to 1m on the AW and mid-division in a nursery at this venue thirteen days ago. Looked in need of a bit further that day so step up in trip should suit but much more needed against a few of these with proven form at today’s trip and one to watch for now.

9 Washington Blue – Rip Van Winkle filly who is still a maiden after six starts. Has performed with credit on more than occasion and finished a decent fourth in a similar event at Lingfield twenty days ago. Wear cheekpieces today and needs another step up from last race and may find this a bit deeper today.

10 Suffragette City – Only sixth in a similar race at Newmarket in October and makes her polytrack debut today. Trying 1m for the first time and needs to prove his stamina for the trip. Beginning to look a bit exposed at this level and hard to fancy returning from a break of 62 days. Yard also run No Not Again. Best watched on this surface for now.

11 Baileys Apprentice – Filly by Mastercraftsman and still a maiden after six runs. Has placed three times on turf and needs to improve for the switch to polytrack debut. Yard’s horses run well here and sire’s progeny have been throwing up a couple of winners recently. Interesting at a price and one to watch closely in the betting. Yard also run Fancy Day.

12 No Not Again – Hasn’t run beyond 7f and remains a maiden after six starts. Only seventh of 11 in a similar race nineteen days ago and looks up against it here. Yard also run Suffragette City.

13 Fancy Day – Won on debut at Pontefract in Class 5 fillies’ stakes in June and has largely disappointed up to Class 4 level since. Only sixth of 10 at Chelmsford in a Class 6 nursery twenty-six days ago and needs to improve immensely to get involved here. Yard look to have a stronger chance with Baileys Apprentice.

14 Broughtons Story – Only five races so far and second since leaving Willie Musson. Well below the promise he showed in his second start when only ninth at this course over 7f thirteen days ago (Emenem in first, Pobbles in sixth). Will need more than a career best to get involved today.