2.50pm Goodwood Tips & Betting Preview 30/04/2016

2.50pm Goodwood – Betfred “Treble Odds On Lucky 15’s” Handicap Class Two – 7f

This looks like about the toughest handicap on Channel 4 this Saturday, so we will sensibly start with the in form stables and that means Mick Channon and Lincoln (8/1 Each Way) are our first port of call with a 17% strike rate in the last fourteen days. As for the horse, he doesn’t look like a tempter at first glance with a row of duck eggs against his name but that only tells part of the story and we think he has each way chances. We feel we can totally ignore his last run when left with a bit too much to do and then getting blocked when attempting his run but better still, the handicapper hasn’t ignored it, and has dropped him another two pounds so he races here off a mark of 93, only two pounds above his last win at Chester. All three of his career wins have been over this seven furlongs trip and he has won on soft so any more rain overnight would not be of issue, and at a price he looks as if he is all set up to run a massive race.

Sticking to in form trainers and top weight Perfect Pasture (14/1) represents the bang in form Michael Easterby stable this afternoon after a long drive south from Yorkshire. Not only is the six-year-old a last time out winner after a very easy four length win at Pontefract when running on strongly over a furlong shorter, but as we write his stable has a 31% strike rate in the past two weeks as well which has to be encouraging. Put up an over the top eight pounds for that victory, we assume connections feel the extra furlong will negate that weight rise, though heh hasn’t tried this trip since 2013 and is yet to win over it which has to be of some concern.

Next on our short list we Right Touch (16/1), who had a great season in 2015 with three wins at Pontefract, as to, and Ayr, but has basically disappointed in both of his races this season when seventh of twenty-one in the Spring Mile (a promising effort for the future), and then when tenth of thirteen at Haydock when sent to the front a furlong out before being swamped by the chasing pack. Adam McNamara is back on board again this afternoon and takes off a pretty useful seven pounds, and as we can be sure he is now 100% race fit, they may be able to cover him up a little longer today before hitting the front and trying to fight off his nearest pursuers inside the final furlong.

Course and distance winner Czech It Out (12/1) could appeal to each way punters looking for an option at a big price, and did win on good ground so if the rains stay way conditions could yet be ideal. He does have to race of a higher mark today so life won’t be that easy, but it is family tradition for Amanda Perrett to have a winner at Goodwood whenever possible and we can be certain she will have him as ready to run as is humanly possible. We can’t really suggest he is well handicapped because in our opinion he isn’t, but he could show improvement and run a big race, possibly even stealing a place at the line and at a decent price.

Down at the bottom of the handicap the David Menusier trained Sinfonietta (9/1) could be well weighted with the more late rain the better for the son of Sinndar. Last time out at Nottingham (on heavy going) he hacked up pulling a cart by an easy six lengths but has been put up thirteen pounds for that and won’t find life quite so easy for some time. The booking of Kieren Fallon is certainly eye-catching as we all look to see if the jockey still has the will and desire he used to show from the saddle, but if he does, he may be able to cajole another good run out of this improving four-year-old.

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