Worcester Novices’ Chase Tips & Betting Preview

2.10pm Newbury Thursday 26th November

Free Tip: Un Temps Pour Tour at 9/4

Race Details

Race Time: 2.10pm Meeting: Newbury Day: Thursday 26th November 2015 Full Race Name: bet365 Novices’ Chase (Registered as The Worcester Novices Steeple Chase) (Grade Two) Class One

Betting Preview

An intriguing list of exciting and promising horses have been entered here for this £25,000 guaranteed event with the usual early season mix of those with some experience over the larger obstacles versus the classy hurdlers who may or may not be just as good or better now they are being sent over fences. Think of a top class National Hunt trainer and they have an early entry here, and as Paul Nicholls has taken three of the last ten renewals, he seems a sensible place for us to start. Three early entries suggested he was looking at adding to that tally with Port Melon the one after his recent win at Kempton over this sort of distance. In a race full of stamina questions and few answers, at least we know he stays, and although he looked a tricky ride at times, once he picked up the bit he closed on the leaders with ease, staying on well to beat Kilmurvy by a couple of lengths despite giving that rival eight pounds in the day. This does look like a rise in class depending on the final line up, but the Nicholls horses have generally been improving for a run this season, and we won’t be writing off his chances just yet.

Rebecca Curtis is waiting to hit top form with her horses but sends Beast Of Burden here as he looks to make up for unseating on his chasing bow at Ascot when looking the most likely winner at Chepstow last month. A real chasing sort, he will hopefully have learned a lot from that experience and does look as if he can go a long way in this game if he can get his jumping together, and with some well above average hurdling form that includes wins at Ffos Las and Bangor, he may take some stopping here with trip and track looking just about perfect for his needs.

Colin Tizzard is an amongst the winners of late and he sends Native River here as the five year old looks to build on his comfortable Exeter win, where the step up to this sort of trip seemed to bring massive improvement. His hurdling form was better than average and included wins at Stratford Newcastle and Exeter, while his chasing debut third at Chepstow when running on strongly over two and a half miles was promising and saw him sent off the 11/8 favourite next time out, and landing the bets by sixteen lengths from Abracadabra Sivola. Stamina certainly seems to be his thing, and he may be even better long term over further than this, but if it turns in to a slog we can expect to see him running on fast and late, though whether he will be quick enough, only time will tell.

Meanwhile, David Pipe sends likely favourite Un Temps Pour Tout here as he looks to build on his chasing debut where he finished less than three lengths runner up to the Paul Nicholls trained Vicente after clouting the second last. Way above average over hurdles, he destroyed Thousand Stars and Zarkandar over hurdles at Auteuil which is rock solid form, and if he can translate even 90% of that ability to the larger obstacles this season then he could well end up as a serious Cheltenham contender, and we simply cannot oppose him today.

Lastly, trainer Kim Bailey is renowned for his chasers and in Twelve Roses he has an interesting contender but only of we ignore his last run when pulled up at Cheltenham. To our eyes he seemed to fail to see out the three miles that day, but his trainer should know a lot better than we do and hasn’t taken the opportunity to drop him back in trip, so maybe there was more to that poor run than meets the eye? He has won over fences at the first attempt when seeing off the useful Southfield Theatre by half a length over a little shy over two and a half miles so we know he can get over a fence, yet his stamina is still a worry and enough to put us off him today.

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