Carlisle runner with form figures of PP backed into 10-1 from 22-1 on Sunday 🤔

It’s always sensible to keep an eye on the market as it can give a good indication of the level of confidence behind a horse. The money has come for a runner at Carlisle on Sunday and it’s certainly an interesting one. Having pulled up on its last two hurdles starts, it’s difficult to understand the market support. A horse that has pulled up in it its last two two starts wouldn’t appear to be in the best of form. However, the money is coming for the horse, which has caused its odds to tumble. Check out our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.

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3.00 Carlisle

Monticello is a maiden in eight starts over hurdles so far and two thirds are the best he has managed. His recent form has been absolutely poor, failing to complete in his last two and beaten by 21 lengths when fifth in November. Neil Mechie’s nine-year-old had a spin on the all-weather at Newcastle when last seen, finishing seventh of nine and beaten by four-and-a-half lengths.

He drops back to an extended 2m3f here and perhaps the shorter trip can at least inspire a completion. Just getting round would be a significant improvement but his tumbling odds suggest there are some out there that are expecting even more. There is one piece of form this season that does seem positive however. The gelding finished third at Hexham in November over an extended 2m7f and was only beaten by three-quarters-of-a-length.

If capable of returning to the level of form shown at Hexham earlier this season then he’d be in with a shout, off this 4lb lower mark. This particular gamble doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me but the confidence behind this horse is strong and sustained. There are currently no signs that the support is waning.

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