Ayr Gold Cup: draw bias, pace angle, trainer to follow and the verdict

The feature race of the day on Saturday is the ultra-competitive Ayr Gold Cup and it promises to be a belter of a renewal with a large field of 25 runners set to go to post. Make sure you check out out free horse racing tips for every race on ITV Racing on Saturday. If you are keen to find out about the draw bias, pace angle, a trainer to follow and the verdict, read on!

Draw Bias

Naturally, the desire to narrow down a field of 25 sprint handicappers to a more manageable shortlist is quite common. When analysing a race like this, it’s logical to begin by considering the potential impact of the starting position. In the history of this race, it’s evident that the draw has played a substantial role in numerous editions. Conventional wisdom suggests that higher-numbered positions have historically held an advantage in the large sprints along Ayr’s straight 5f and 6f track.

In saying that, 2022 winner Summerghand came out of stall 12 but 2021 winner came out of stall 25 and 2020 winner Nahaarr came out of stall 13. Middle to high seems to be the place to be but the pace angle is also an important factor, which we move on to next.

Pace Angle

The pace of a race in a contest of this nature is absolutely vital. If you look at the replay of last year’s race, Summerghand was held up behind a wall of horses in rear and came home with a late rattle to win. Interestingly, he was drawn between two of the pace angles in the race, Mr Wagyu (15) and Bergerac (8) and it was the latter in particular who set the race up for him as he didn’t have to move across to any side. He stayed central behind Bergerac and was able to take advantage when the pace collapsed.

We would be here all day if we spoke about who will go on and make things as there are several horses in the race who like to get on with things. However, when you like the look of a horse for the race, factor in his draw and factor in the horses around him. If he is a hold up horse and has a tearaway drawn next to him or her, that can be a massive plus.

Trainer to Follow

Kevin Ryan really targets this Ayr meeting and he has a great record in the Ayr Gold Cup, winning the race five times since 2007. He has three contenders for the race this year in Bielsa, Magical Spirit and Allezdancer so they are worth monitoring in the betting.

Verdict

Kevin Ryan’s Bielsa won this race in 2021 and he is only 1lb higher this year. Things didn’t go to plan for the horse in the race last year but, he arrives here off the back of a solid third in the Stewards’ Cup and he will be able to track the pace up the middle.

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