Aintree Festival Day 2: The trends point to a 12/1 shock result in the Melling Chase

Day 2 of the Aintree Festival is going to be a cracker and there are seven excellent races to look forward to. The highlight of the day is the £250,000 Melling Chase, which is a Grade 1 run over 2m4f. Trends are often useful tools, as they can help you to narrow down your shortlist when attempting to pick the winner. With that in mind, here are some of the dominant trends over the last decade and they point to a one horse in particular. Take a look at free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.

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CLAIM

Age profile

Eight of the last nine winners were between six and eight-years-old, with two time winner Jonbon being the only horse to buck the trend. This does apply to all but two of the seven runners, but Grey Dawning and JPR One have some work to do as the two nine-year-olds in the field.

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CLAIM

Experience

It pays to have a reasonable amount of experience over fences in this race, as eight of the last nine winners had at least 10 previous starts over fences. Gidleigh Park has only had five, which would be a concern, and L’Eau du Sud has run nine times over fences before.

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CLAIM

Grade 1 chase winner

Seven of the last nine winners had won a Grade 1 chase beforehand and Gidleigh Park, JPR One and Saint Segal have all failed to do so.

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CLAIM

Cheltenham form

Six of the last nine winners ran in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham before going on to win this and only one of the last nine ran in the Ryanair, which potentially doesn’t bode well for Heart Wood. Two of the last four Melling Chase winners skipped Cheltenham entirely, a strategy which connections of Solness are hoping to pull off.

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CLAIM

Verdict

Solness (12/1, Boylesports) has lots in his favour according to the trends and he does bring a high level of form to the table. He was a Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown over Christmas and has won over this trip in the past. Perhaps the plan to avoid Cheltenham will pay dividends.

Solness

Analysis

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CLAIM

Aintree Festival Day 2: The trends point to a 12/1 shock result in the Melling Chase

Age profile

Experience

Grade 1 chase winner

Cheltenham form

Verdict

Solness

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