The 1000 Guineas is for the best mile fillies in New Zealand and with a stake of $300,000, it is one of the targeted races of the season. A field of 11 has accepted for the feature at Riccarton and the bookmakers have settled on La Diosa as the firm favourite.
In Summary: La Diosa will be tough to beat, but ASTARA is by far the better value runner. She was good enough to break a track record at Ellerslie and punters are getting a much better price than the favourite who has some negative factors. Glass Slipper is a solid place chance in an even betting affair.
1 La Diosa – Has won back-to-back races and is the current favourite with bookmakers. The So You Think filly defeated a top quality field at Ashburton last start by a length, but in second place was Heroic Valour and that failed to impress in the 2000 Guineas last week. She also has a wide barrier draw which could make life difficult for apprentice rider Racha Cuneen who doesn’t have much experience at the top level. Too many negatives for us to take the short odds on offer.
2 Astara – Broke the track record at Ellerslie when winning in April when she put almost two lengths on Eleonora, who subsequently ran third in the Group 1 Victoria Derby in the Australia. She was a tough winner again at Ellerslie last start when getting tackled on the lead, but fought them off to score narrowly over race-rival Glass Slipper. Her odds are more appealing than La Diosa’s here.
3 Mystery Show – Yet to finish worse than third in five career starts and was unlucky behind Astara last start. The Sakhee’s Secret filly was back throughout before being blocked on the turn. She only saw daylight in the final 100m when spouting wings and flashed home for third. She strikes as a filly who will appreciate the rise in distance and will only need some luck in running from barrier six.
4 Its Time For Magic – Winner of one from six starts with two placings and ooks well-held here. She will put plenty of speed into the race, but hasn’t been able to see out the shorter distances and stepping up to the mile is a stretch too far. Big odds available and rightfully so.
5 Glass Slipper – Unable to win a race from six starts, but has been producing strong finishes and her day will come soon. The O’Sullivan/Scott-trained filly pushed Astara close last start and is bred to run over further. The daughter of Pins is a luckless type which can be frustrating for punters, but Glass Slipper should give followers a good sight at Riccarton.
6 Midnight Gossip – Winner of two from three including a 3.5-length win over Astara on debut. Her most recent run came when winning on this track and that experience should benefit her greatly. Chris Johnson knows how to handle a horse and she shouldn’t be underrated in this. Likely to sit near the pace and kick strongly.
7 Bella Gioia – Looked the goods when winning consecutive races to start this campaign, but only battled late last start when seventh behind the 2000 Guineas winner. Looks a runner which needs everything to go her way and from barrier 10, is going to need the breaks at the right time. Clearly talented, but too risky in this situation.
8 Zigwig – Gets the inside draw, but that’s where the positives end. Ran ninth behind La Diosa two starts back and has since finished second in much weaker grade. Could be a runner which tries to steal the race, but she’s not fancied in this.
9 Royal Fashion – Daughter of Snitzel who is bred to be quick and was only 2.9 lengths behind Ugo Foscolo last start which is great form. She looked good winning prior at Ruakaka by 1.8 lengths and on her form last season included a placing behind the subsequent Australian-performed Luna Rossa. Looks a handy each way chance.
10 Sweepstake – Lightly-tried type who has been given a trial since running fourth last start. She won that trial and there is some confidence around for this runner. Won well on debut and the second horse has since won, so consider here.
11 Incantesimo – Has no form to speak of and will reach triple figures in the betting