Kinloch Brae Chase Tips & Betting Preview

Only six go to post for this Grade 3 but it is a very classy field and looks an exciting contest, so our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: A classy field and a strong case can be made for at least three of these, but preference is for SMASHING. His last two runs have been at trips he hasn’t appreciated and the drop in trip for today’s race will suit much better. He’ll be able to give his true running today in conditions that will suit and is likely to put up a stern fight. He can hold off the challenge of the consistent Sub Lieutenant, who cannot be dismissed on previous form.

1 BLACK HERCULES – Very classy chaser at his best with his accolades including a win at last year’s Festival in the JLT Novices’ Chase (2m 3f, Good), but hasn’t been at his best this season. Has nine lengths to make up with Sizing John based on their latest run at Leopardstown but going up in trip should help him in that respect as his best form is at around this trip. Is likely to give it a good go if back to his best and has to be respected given that he’s still relatively lightly raced for his age.

2 SIZING JOHN – Douvan has been the bane of his existence for most of his career but ran a good race behind that rival at Leopardstown in December, keeping Black Hercules nine lengths behind (2m 1f, Yielding). Goes up in trip which may not suit based on previous evidence and Black Hercules is likely to be more of a threat today with this extra yardage, though he does have the ground to suit. Will give his all and should be in their pitching come the last, and is owed a lot of respect.

3 SMASHING – Ran very well three outings ago at Navan in April to win a Grade 2 (2m 4f, Soft to Heavy) and going up in trip the last twice has meant he hasn’t been seen at best effect. Dropping back to this trip with the ground conditions today means he can give his true running and has no real excuses for Mouse Morris. If back to his best he’d have to be considered a main contender with his wins at Grade 2 level and cannot be underestimated.

4 SUB LIEUTENANT – Consistent performer at his level, winning two out of last three runs. Wasn’t disgraced either on his latest start at Punchestown over this distance when finishing third and close behind Djakadam and Outlander in a Grade 1 (2m 4f, Yielding to Soft), and that form brings him into play as one of the main protagonists. Able to run on any type of ground, this distance seems to be his optimum, with the great David Mullins taking the ride which is another big plus. Likely to run well and it would be foolish to dismiss him today.

5 BOXING ALONG – 13 year old who has been performing poorly at a level much lower than this over both hurdles and fences. Conditions are fine for him today but that is about the only possible positive that can be taken from his profile and he’s likely to be tailed off from a very early stage.

6 LETTER OF CREDIT – Inconsistent 12 year old who ran well on his latest start at Limerick, albeit at a much, much lower level than this (2m 6f, Soft to Heavy). Drop back in trip seems suspect on his previous runs and regardless, he is unlikely to make any impression on the top four in the market and is dismissed.

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