Belmont Derby Tips & Betting Preview

Aidan O’Brien teamed up with Jamie Spencer to take this Deauville last year while Jeremy Noseda plundered the cash in 2011 with Western Aristocrat so all things are possible. Bill Mott has won it on numerous occasions and is well represented here as they all try to take their share of the massive prize fund with over half a million pounds to the lucky winning connections.

IN SUMMARY:  A really tough one to call with Yoshida, Call To The Bar, and even Whitecliffsofdover all serious contenders as is favourite Oscar Performance but at the prices it may be worth taking an each way risk on SENIOR INVESTMENT who finished a gallant third in the Preakness and would have a superb chance at a price if able to repeat that form today.

1 GOOD SAMARITAN – Finished behind Oscar Performance last time out here and has it all to do if he wants to try and turn that form around. He finished behind the same rival last Autumn in the Breeders Cup Juvenile turf at Santa Anita and looks held on those form lines. Trainer Bill Mott has two entered here but the son of Harlan’s Holiday looks to be the second string and ought to struggle against some of these.

2 TICONDEROGA – Finished behind Oscar Performance and Good Samaritan in the Breeders Cup Turf last Autumn but had to be brought wide that day and may finish a good deal closer to those rivals now. This season has been a bit below par so far with a third to Oscar Performance and Good Samaritan (again) here last time out and he looks to have too much to find to get involved in the finish today.

3 HOMESMAN – One of two here trained by Aidan O’Brien in Ireland and difficult to judge just yet after just the six starts, five of them this season. Last time out he finished four and three quarter lengths fifth to Atty Persse in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot but that is a handicap and it would be a shock if Colm O’Donoghue can win a race of this calibre on board the son of War Front who would need to show some pretty serious improvement.

4 OSCAR PERFORMANCE – Likely to be sent off favourite for trainer Brian Lynch and perhaps rightly so after a clever win here last time out when taking the Grade Three Pennine Ridge Stakes in early June by a length and a half from Good Samaritan with no obvious reason why that should be reversed today. He clearly will not be far away here for a stable with a 25% strike rate of late and was not passed over lightly.

5 CALLED TO THE BAR – Madame Pia Brandt’s French raider has been well supported in the early markets after two wins in a row now at Chantilly and Saint-Cloud with a win in the Group Three Prix Du Lys over a mile and a half last time out when making all the running and winning with plenty left up his sleeve. A son of Henrythenavigator, his supporters will be hoping he has travelled well for this challenge and he is clearly a major player though it needs to be noted that this will be the fastest going he has ever encountered and he is not guaranteed to handle it based on previous efforts.

6 ARKLOW – Trainer Brad Cox sits proudly on a 100% strike rate at present but one winner from one runner tells very little, though the son of Arch has won his last two with a Grade Two victory at Churchill Downs last time out when beating Good Samaritan a length when getting five pounds from the runner-up. At level weights he seems unlikely to confirm that form though a place could well still be a possibility.

7 YOSHIDA – Bill Mott’s Japanese-bred son of has won two of his three starts so far, both this season with a four-length win at Pimlico in lesser class last time out that caught the eye. This is his first venture in to Graded company but he hasn’t done a lot wrong so far and seems to be very much on an upward curve. On the down side the stable are without a winner from eight runners in the last fortnight which is far from encouraging and at the prices others appeal just that little bit more.

8 MAKARIOS – Likely to be sent off the outsider of this field and rightly so after finishing behind plenty of this field last time out when a five and three quarter length sixth of seven here last month. Oscar Performance won that day with Good Samaritan in second and Ticonderogo in third and that looks to give the son of Giant’s Causeway little or no chance of success here.

9 BIG SCORE – A very consistent colt with three wins, two seconds, and a third from his seven starts for trainer Tim Yakteen who is without a recent runner and thus hard to judge regarding stable form. Last time out the son of Mr. Big finished a length and a quarter second to Frostmourne in the Grade Two Penn Mile. This is a step up in trip and there are no guarantees either way – it may bring improvement or it may be a step too far, and others seem better suited to this race.

10 WHITECLIFFSOFDOVER – Seemingly the Aidan O’Brien second string according to the betting but the booking of Wayne Lordan to ride suggests that may not necessarily be the case. Last time out he ran below par when eased when beaten in the Jersey Stakes over seven furlongs at Royal Ascot and it is at least interesting to see the son of War Front out of an A. P. Indy mare stepped up in trip which may well bring improvement as a half-brother to Endless Chatter who won over a mile and a furlong.

11 SENIOR INVESTMENT – Not the most consistent horse in the race by any means, but bits and pieces of form give him every chance of success here. He clearly didn’t see out the mile and a half last time out when well beaten in the Belmont Stakes but had finished a six lengths third to Cloud Computing in the Preakness and you have to ask if any of these would have got that close in a race of that calibre. He can win as witnessed in the Lexington Stakes back in April and if he brings his ‘A’ game he is grossly overpriced and well worthy of each way consideration.

Belmont Derby Tips & Betting Preview

The $1,250,000 Belmont Derby is the feature race on the card this Saturday night and yet again it is brilliant to see some European trainers fly over in a bid to land this monster pot. Although LONG ISLAND SOUND (6/1) may be trained in Europe, he will feel very at home here in the United States. The three year old colt is sired by War Front and his dam is Treasure Trail who is also American. He landed his maiden on debut on the polytrack at Dundalk before going on to land the hat trick of wins at Dundalk and Killarney against fairly poor opposition.

There was a lot to like about his run in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot where he finished third. He was four lengths behind the winner Hawkbill of the Charlie Appleby yard, a horse that went on to win the Coral Eclipse at Sandown since. Although the second that day Prize Money has since run a stinker, there is no reason to doubt the form of that particular race. It was also his first step up to a mile and a quarter which was surely a preparation race for his trip to Belmont. He is bred to get this trip and maybe even a bit further so you can expect improvement to come.

War Front is a son of Danzig and that sire has been widely known to produce top class horses over middle distances. On the other side of the fence, Treasure Trail is a half sibling to Zenyatta who of course won the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic back in 2009. There is no doubt that Long Island Sound has a fantastic pedigree and it is very unlikely that we have seen even close to the best of him yet. Aidan O’Brien has applied Lasix for Long Island Sound and a huge run is fully expected.

O’Brien also saddles the current favourite for the race, Deauville (11/4). The son of Galileo looks a bit on the short side in the market after a bitterly disappointing run in the Eprom Derby where he finished a miserable 11th of 16. It is easy to forgive that run however due to the pure magnitude and competitiveness of the race whilst he also wasn’t helped with a poor draw out in the car park in Stall 12. He has won two races to date; his maiden at Listowel and a moderate Group 3 at Leopardstown. His fifth place finish behind Marcel in the Racing Post Trophy wasn’t a very inspiring run and although he ran a fine race in the Dante when second to Wings Of Desire, he has to be opposed at the prices.

Of the American runners, Camelot Kitten (5/1) is their main hope. Chad Brown’s colt by Kitten’s Joy comes here in fine fettle after wins at Churchill Downs and here at Belmont Park. His latest success was here in the Pennine Ridge Stakes where he had the run of the race and just saw off the fast finishing Highland Sky (9/1) by a neck. The form does not look all that on the face of it so it looks like Aidan O’Brien has this race at his mercy. Long Island Sound looks the each way value of the race and that will be the play.

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Please Gamble Responsibly