3.30pm Ayr Tips & Betting Preview 08/05/2017

This is a competitive handicap over a mile, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: This a fascinating race and the vote goes the way of Keith Dalgleish’s PLAY WITH ME. She makes her handicap debut today off a mark of 53 and the handicapper may have underestimated her slightly having shown some improvement on her last run. She’s a decent price in this against some interesting sorts including Breaking Free who has the visor reapplied today and Kelpie Spirit who receives the assistance of Daniel Tudhope in the saddle.

1 GOOD BOY JESPER – Linda Perratt’s runner makes his handicap debut off a seasonal break today. He ran three times as a 2yo in some relatively decent maidens although he was comfortably beaten in all of those contests and was sent off no shorter than 100/1 on all three occasions. He’ll do better now entered into handicaps although he may struggle off top weight here and is best watched. Market support would be significant though.

2 ARNOLD – Just denied on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk 8 days ago when he finished second of 13. He was only beaten a neck that day and showed himself to be on a good mark so connections will be disappointed if he can’t land this slightly weaker contest. The yard have failed to send out a winner from 14 runners in the past fortnight and they have just a 2% strike rate at Ayr (1 winner from 44 runners).

3 HOLLYWOOD HARRY – Has posted some mixed performances since entered into handicap company earlier this year. He was only beaten a length by a well-handicapped sort in March but he’s gone backwards since then, having been held in two handicaps at different tracks. He’s stepped back up in trip today which looks like the right move and he’s not completely out of it now back down to a mark of 56. Interesting here for a yard with a 12% strike rate at Ayr.

4 PENY ARCADE – Took a step forward on her latest start to win a maiden at Newcastle over 7 furlongs. That isn’t the strongest of form lines but it showed her to be a progressive sort and she’s only been raised a pound now she steps back in to handicap company. She will naturally find this tougher than her last start and stall 9 isn’t perfect but she’s worthy of respect here now kept over the right trip in seven furlongs.

5 KELPIE SPIRIT – John Weymes’ runner makes his handicap debut today and he’s hard to fancy on form. This son of Born To Sea has been beaten a long way in three starts and he finished last of 8, beaten 26 lengths at Ripon on his last start. He will find this company much easier but a mark of 55 still looks high enough on what he’s shown to date and his form needs drastic improvement to win this. The booking of Daniel Tudhope does catch the eye though.

6 PLAY WITH ME – This filly is Keith Dalgleish’s second runner in the race and another handicap debutante. She’s been sent off 11/1, 50/1 and 50/1 in three starts in maiden company in some weak affairs although she did show some promise on her last start at Wolverhampton. She’s stepped back up in trip today and a mark of 53 could just be workable here having only been beaten 8 lengths by some decent enough sorts last month. She has a definite chance today with Joe Fanning booked.

7 GUIDING STAR – Patrick McKenna’s filly makes her first start in the UK today following 8 runs without success in Ireland. She’s gone off the boil this year with some sizeable defeats having shown some promise over the Christmas period which included a 3 3/4 length third at Dundalk. She arrives here off a mark of 52 which is potentially generous and she should be watched closely in the betting given market support would be significant.

8 BREAKING FREE – John Quinn has an excellent 20% strike rate at Ayr and his gelding is an interesting runner here. He wasn’t beaten far on his seasonal reappearance at Catterick last month when a 2 3/4 length sixth over 7 furlongs and he should be fitter and sharper today. He’s 7lbs lower than last summer where he finished third off a mark of 59 in much tougher company than this and the visor is reapplied today. Definite chances with Jason Hart kept on board.

9 CHING CHING LOR – Finished half a length behind Breaking Free at Catterick last month when sent off a well-supported 6/1 chance. He wasn’t good enough that day and he has been dropped a pound to a mark of 50 which still looks slightly on the high side. He’s certainly going the right way and is beginning to progress now running in handicaps although there are some more progressive types in this.

10 MR ENTHUSIASTIC – Noel Wilson has been in flying form of late with 3 winners from his last 6 runners. It’d be a surprise to see his son of Assertive win here though with some poor form to his name in a host of novice and maiden races to date. He was tried in handicap company at the end of last year but he was beaten 16 1/2 lengths off a mark of 56 and it’s no surprise to see him dropped 7lbs today. He’s difficult to make a case for in this.

11 WARLEGGAN – Second runner in this for Linda Perratt and he races off a near basement mark of 46 today. He’s shown absolutely nothing since switching to this stable having been beaten 13 and 60 lengths respectively in two starts and he’s been dropped 8lbs in the process. He was a 6-length second in a Lingfield claimer last summer and there is some ability there although it’s unlikely to be seen today and he’s opposed again here.