9.10pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 04/10/2016

The last race of the day at Kempton Park is a very competitive affair. Read our horse-by-horse race preview for our experts’ betting tips.

IN SUMMARY: Pretty Bubbles and Red Artist, the latter owned in part by Sir Alex Ferguson, both have potential at double figure prices but BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS looks an excellent Each Way tip for this competitive Class 4. Pat Cosgrave has a £1 stakes profit of over £45 at Kempton and his mount looks both well handicapped and well suited by conditions following a good run 44 days ago at Chelmsford over 5f.

1 MEMORIES GALORE – May not have won since last August but has only had 10 starts in total and ran admirably in the Class 2 Gosforth Park Cup at Newcastle in June off one pound higher than today, finishing 3rd. Couldn’t go the clip at Haydock last time out but has plenty of chances here. Short enough in the market and Kempton is Kirby’s lowest strike rate of all All Weather tracks (Newcastle aside)

2 PRETTY BUBBLES – Impressive strike rate on the All Weather with 7 wins and 12 places in 32 starts, and seems in good nick having run well in the Windsor Spring Series Finale two starts ago. Remains off a near career high mark here though and has never won off a mark of higher than 80, but does like this track and may be good value at 12/1 having a 33% strike rate at Kempton after 12 runs.

3 HARWOODS VOLANTE – Has seen a lot of racing recently with seven starts since the 23rd of July, finishing 2nd in three of them. Bounced back from disappointment at Thirsk to run well last time out, beaten only a short head, but with no win in 16 starts and a three pound higher mark is likely to find at least one or two too good here.

4 UPSTAGING – In good form this summer with two wins and a second, and is a Course & Distance winner when winning a Maiden here back in October 2014 on just his second start. First time hood is dispensed and wears no equipment for the first time since April which did seem to help him improve. Off 83 here looks short in the market despite his good form and was beaten off 6lb lower over C&D in a similar race back in April.

5 SALVATORE FURY – Two wins in August but couldn’t follow up last time out at Beverley after going left at the start and never catching the pack. Those wins came off marks ten pounds lower (rated 9lb higher on the All Weather) but he was competitive in a C&D race on his last All Weather start off 1lb lower last October. Hasn’t always looked the most genuine but could go well at a big price.

6 RED ARTIST – Well known connections (owned by Sir Alex Ferguson & Peter Done) and eye catching booking in Silvestre De Sousa, he’s won his only All Weather start to date at Wolves in April. Out of his depth at Glorious Goodwood when possibly not seeing the trip out and beaten by an improver last time out but needs to show more off marks in the 80s despite his trainer’s solid All Weather strike rate this year.

7 BOROUGH BOY – Having his best year so far and showing solid improvement but remains difficult to win with and now a full 10lb higher than his highest winning mark. That was at Salisbury and has a poor record at Kempton (one second and one third in seven starts) plus has an absence of 153 days to overcome.

8 ELUSIVE ELLEN – Impressive strike rate of 5 wins in 14 starts on the All Weather, including one at Kempton over 7 furlongs. Found success earlier this year dropping back to this trip from further but was substantially below par last time out and her Brighton win on Good to Soft on her penultimate start suggests she wants further.

9 NISSER – Lightly raced 3 year old trained by Robert Cowell, he was a good horse last year including a 6th in a valuable handicap at Newmarket off 85 (now races off 81). Hasn’t raced on the All Weather before and ran poorly last time out and best watched until showing more, although does have some hidden ability.

10 BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS – Also trained by Robert Cowell, has fallen in the weights from a high of 87 following a good win at Doncaster last June to just 77 last time out when running well over too short a trip at Chelmsford. Still lightly raced on the All Weather, he suggested he was coming back to his best last time and he ran competitively in a Group 3 on his only start at Kempton back in September 2013. Jockey Pat Cosgrove shows a profit of £45.64 to £1 stakes at Kempton in the last 5 seasons and has had a great year so far, and our tip looks a good Each Way bet at the odds.

11 CAPTAIN LARS – Outsider of the field, was rated 102 over in Meydan following a Listed Handicap win in South Africa but has plummeted in the weights following that and is now off a mark of just 75. Has shown glimpses of ability including a 2nd and a 3rd off similar marks but his only two wins in the United Kingdom have come in a Seller and a Claimer and not one to put faith in.

12 DOMINIUM – Eye catcher over Course & Distance in July when getting going too late from a hold up ride by today’s apprentice jockey David Parkes (finished 3rd off 2lb higher) but has struggled to win and handicapper has been slow relenting on the All Weather. Hold up tactics mean he needs luck in running and with a low strike rate in the last two years (1 win from 21 starts since start of October 2014 compared to 5 in 34 before) this 9 year old should find one or two too good.

myracing Forecast Prices: 5/2 Memories Galore, 9/2 Upstaging, 11/2 Harwoods Volante, 8/1  Bahamian Heights, 10/1 bar.

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