6.55pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 29/03/2017

This is an interesting maiden over 1m 3f furlongs, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: This maiden is a bit of a mixed bag with a few different profiles in contention and ALTYN ALQA gets the vote. She’s a well-bred filly and she could prove to be a lovely type in time and the trip of 1m 3f should suit her for a stable that can get one ready. Chippenham is an obvious danger although he looks short enough in the betting whilst Eskendash has good claims at a fair price.

1 C’EST NO MOUR – Trainer has an 8% strike rate here and he’s not renowned for maiden winners. He’s got an interesting enough type in this with a 13,000GNS yearling by Champs Elysees who’s tried on the flat for the first time having run twice in National Hunt flat races this year. This drop back in trip shouldn’t be an issue but it’d be a small surprise should he win this giving away weight to some more attractive sorts.

2 ESKENDASH – There has been plenty of money around for this horse and he’s finished second on all four career starts to date. They’ve all come in National Hunt flat races and he clearly possess a bit of speed so he’s of interest here dropping down in trip to 1m 3f and raced on the flat for the first time. Adam Kirby is an obvious plus in the saddle but his trainer has only sent out one winner from 26 runners here (4%) and he’s vulnerable to a couple. Definitely of interest in this if there’s a good pace on.

3 HAWKERLAND – Made his debut in an incredibly strong Class 2 maiden at Goodwood in summer 2015 and he can be forgiven for finding that on the tough side. He’s been off the track for 606 days so he’s probably had a lot of issues and that makes him a risky prospect. His trainer has a 9% strike rate here and his runner is best watched in this although he could turn out to be decent enough in time.

4 SEHAIL – Beaten out of sight over an extended 1m 1f contest back in November of last year. It’s impossible to assess that form given he was beaten so far although given he’s by Giant’s Causeway so he should appreciate the step up in trip here. He must give plenty of weight away to some better rivals and he’s very hard to recommend in this even though he’s been gelded. Avoided.

5 REEL LEISURE – Has shown some moderate form in National Hunt flat races including a second to Cap Soleil which could prove to be decent form. She steps back down in trip today to 1m 3f which shouldn’t be an issue given that good piece of form came over only a furlong further and she should be seen to good effect in this if she can get a good pace to aim at. One of the more likelier types in this but still has to give plenty of weight away. Trainer has a profit of £8.33 from 204 runners at Kempton.

6 CHIPPENHAM – Showed plenty of promise at home having been sold on for £140,000 as a yearling having been bought for just 32,000 Euros as a foal. He ran a shocker on debut finishing last of 8 when sent off the 11/4 favourite but he showed plenty of improvement on his next start when beaten just under 3 lengths. He should improve again for the step up in trip and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa catches the eye (19% strike rate last 14 days). Big chance of success today.

7 I’M RUNNING LATE – Related to a decent enough sort over much shorter but was sold for only 9,000GNS as a yearling and that doesn’t inspire much confidence on debut. He’s by Sepoy who had a decent first crop last year and his trainer knows the time of day and can ready one first time out. Rob Hornby is booked for the ride and he’s got a chance on paper, but he’s worth watching on debut. Market support would be significant.

8 MOOREA – Never featured on debut when beaten 41 lengths by some average types. He was outpaced in rear and whilst the step up in trip should suit it’s difficult to imagine there’ll be enough progression in him to get involved today. His trainer has a very poor 4% strike rate here (9 winners from 245 runners) and this horse will be a huge price in this and rightly so. Will be better off in handicaps.

9 TEMIR KAYZK – He has a nice pedigree (by Oasis Dream) although he’s not related to many winners and has taken some time to adapt to his racing career. He raced in a small field last time and travelled well for a long way but lost a shoe in the run and that may have just hampered his seemingly good effort. He steps down in trip here slightly which looks like a good decision and he is of definite interest as he clearly continues to progress. Respected.

10 ALTYN ALQA – Her owner has two in this race and on silks at least (rather unscientific), this filly is the first choice of the owner. She’s a High Chaparral filly so this trip should be ideal for her on debut and she comes from a stable that can get one fit and ready first time out. Clive Cox has a 16% strike rate here at Kempton and Luke Morris is booked, presumably as she carries so little weight, 8st 3lbs. She’s of serious interest and the betting should be revealing.

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