3.40pm Windsor Tips & Betting Preview 07/08/2016

Our race preview focuses on a quality, small field handicap at Windsor. See our betting tips below where we look to oppose a likely small priced favourite with a value runner who can hopefully outrun her odds.

IN SUMMARY: This is a good quality Handicap and there a few chances. Gravity Flow and Battlement are both on hat-tricks and have obvious claims for inform yards but perhaps the value can be found in VERY HONEST. Her last run can be discounted somewhat after being unable to dominate when hampered at the start. She may not have much competition for the lead and if the right fractions are set by Oisin Murphy she could be very dangerous in this small field.

1 IMMEDIATE – Has it in her to run a big race after very good displays in 2015 in France. However she’s been in no such form when transferred to the UK in 2016 and would really need rain to show her in best effect which she will not get. Needs to do a lot better.

2 BATTLEMENT – Drops back to 6f for the first time today but that shouldn’t be too much of problem for Charlton’s inform filly. She’s won her last two starts, latest at Newmarket (7f, Good to Firm) when running on nicely. She’s shown plenty of early dash and if managing to shake off the penalty she will definitely hit the frame, but she may well need a strong pace.

3 GRAVITY FLOW – Has been impressive on her last two runs, latest when winning without much fuss at Doncaster (6f, Good to Firm). Bought for the grand price of 165,000 euros, runs for an inform yard (Haggas) and conditions are perfect so no excuses. Has lots of potential and should definitely run well bidding for her hat-trick.

4 VERY HONEST – Hung on for a narrow victory at Goodwood on penultimate start (6f, Good) when making nearly all. Latest start wasn’t so good but she was hampered at the start and was unable to dictate/be prominent so that can probably be discounted. Could very well be allowed a soft lead which would make her a huge danger and if Murphy can manage the fractions well she should hit the frame.

5 LOVE ON THE ROCKS – Form has certainly been in out but had been running okay in harder races in 2015. She makes her belated comeback today after flopping at Doncaster (5f, Good) in September but she was probably in too deep that time. On pedigree there is a lot too like but she will need to step up on her comeback and needs to be in top shape with a field this talented.

6 CERSEI – Broke her maiden tag when winning at April at Redcar (6f, Soft), stepped up on that effort when 2nd at Nottingham (6f, Soft) and then didn’t really go on from that when 3rd at Doncaster (5.5f, Good). Those were respectable efforts but she’s never raced on Good to Firm ground, which could be a concern. Needs to find something from somewhere to feature heavily in this.

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