2.00pm Newbury Tips & Betting Preview 18/03/2015

Race Time: 2.00pm Meeting: Newbury
Distance: 2m 4f 
Full Race Name: Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Our tip for the 2.00pm Newbury live on Channel 4 is:

Free Tip: Wiesentraum at 12/1 EW

Race Preview

Working via the long range weather forecast we can assume good to soft going for the Newbury card this Saturday, which brings pretty much every horse in to the equation with no real excuses for all of the planned runners.

Trainer Paul Nicholls is responsible for top weight Rebel Rebellion (5/1) should he choose to send the ten-year-old here is his prep race ahead of the Aintree Grand National. Asking him to carry eleven stone twelve is not necessarily the problem, but whether this two and a half trip is what he needs to be seen at his best is a separate issue. Last time out he was beaten by the very well handicapped Soll at Exeter where he looked as if the three miles may have tested his stamina, while his previous run had seen victory over a fraction shy of two and three-quarter miles at Ascot, which makes today’s race more suitable, and the Grand National more likely a pipe dream.

Jack Sherwood has been booked to ride at the time of writing, and takes a very valuable 5 pounds off the horses back, but if they are serious about Aintree then they asking a lot of him here, and despite Paul Nicholls’ amazing Saturday record in recent months it seems unlikely this gelded son of Lord Americo will continue that run.

If you’re looking for a horse who arrives here at the top of his game, then the Lucy Wadham trained Wiesentraum (12/1) fits the bill, having won his last two races at Warwick and Fakenham, but both were over further and his last race was last October, which must leave question marks over his race fitness here. Venetia Williams is a trainer we all have plenty of time for, and her entry with Pepite Rose catches the eye, as the eight-year-old is the only course and distance winner in the field. Interestingly, there was in this very race 12 months ago, and off of exactly the same handicap rating of 145, and only time will tell if that equates to the same weight this afternoon.

Admittedly she has failed to score again in seven races since, but she has got some decent place form including a three and a quarter length second to Sire De Grugy at Sandown, and a length and a half third to the well-regarded Highland Retreat at Doncaster in her penultimate contest. She clearly likes it here, is well handicapped, and is not being asked to do any more than she successfully achieved last season, and if I have a bet she would be my each way option.

Those looking for an outsider, from a highly respected yard, could do a lot worse than One Term (28/1), part of the Rebecca Curtis string though a bitter disappointment so far this season. Three wins in a row last season have been followed by form figures of PFP this season which is the total opposite, but that has seen him granted a whole two pounds reprieve by the handicapper and if he is back to his best (a massive IF), then he could yet pull off a major surprise.