£150,000 Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 03/10/2015

Race Time: 1.45pm Meeting: Newmarket Day: Saturday 3rd October Distance: 6f

Full Race Name:  £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Class Two

The first of three very valuable sales races from Newmarket this Saturday saw 42 four-day entries looking to land the guaranteed prize fun with the weights to be carried based on the amounts paid at the sales to buy them in the first place. Now down to “just” the 28, life becomes very interesting with pure form and race wins not the only proviso in determining the weights carried. When you consider the prize money we were surprised to see just the five last time out winners even at this early stage, though Twin Sails is clearly he best horse in the race at these weights, even if he has disappointed a couple of times lately. Two wins out of two saw his career start with a bang but he has now lost three in a row though to be fair, the first of those was a three quarter length fourth of eight to Galileo Gold over seven furlongs in the Group Two Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Unsurprisingly, a winning run was expected when he dropped back in to Listed class at Newbury (again over seven) before finishing stone cold last with no obvious excuses other than stamina, but he did run a better race when last seen at Doncaster where again he faded late on, this time over six and a half furlongs. If they have the sense to drop him back to the six he would face here then that could well be exactly what he needs to get back on the winning trail, and we shall be looking for his participation with a lot of interest.

Trainer Richard Hannon invariably has something up his sleeve for these races and the early jockey booking of Ryan Moore for Receding Waves is interesting as the son of Dick Turpin, who was also handled by the Hannon family, looks to make it win number four as a two year old. His earlier races haven’t been at such a lofty standard as Twin Sails but he did show courage and stamina to get up late on last time out at Haydock when carrying top weight to victory in a Class Two nursery. Whether that form is good enough is pretty questionable, even though the runner up has scored since, but he does have heart which is always a good thing to have on your side, and this may not be the strongest ever race for the money, leaving him with better chances than you might expect.

Puzzled Look is another going the right way having won her Chepstow maiden at then second attempt and with plenty in hand, but then at odds of 1/2 what else would anyone expect, and we have to question if anything of any ability was in behind? The fourth has won since at Redcar though that is it, though plenty of others have won without success, leaving the form with a pretty weak look about it. She doesn’t hold any fancy entries but then again, this isn’t the strongest ever renewal and she may well get in to the first four home at the very least for trainer Ralph Beckett.

Improving sorts and unknown quantities make up a higher proportion of the declarations than we would like as they are so difficult to get a good handle on, though there have been whispers that Richard Fahey expects a big run here from Bahamian Bird who is crying out for this sixth furlong. Still a maiden after two runs, she ran a blinder over the minimum trip of five furlongs when second on her debut at Redcar, but failed to build on that next time out when well beaten in fourth at Beverley after being outpace close home. She will need to improve considerably for the extra furlong but with the way her trainer has been mopping up at weekends of late all things are possible, and she is very much on our each way possibles list at this early stage.

Lastly, Willie Musson is not exactly premier league in Newmarket but he invariably wins races when the money is down, making Broughton’s Vision an intriguing option – again each way, though probably at a much bigger price. Third at Kempton at odds of 66/1 first time out, it seems fair to suggest the money wasn’t down that day, yet he ran a blinder to finish a length and a half third, running on at the death, and although that was a low class race, he is said to have improved considerably at home, and if there is to be a massive upset, he has as good a chance as any of causing it!