1.30pm Newbury Tips & Betting Preview 26/11/2016

An interesting race to start the day and one that hasn’t seen a winning favourite since Exmoor Ranger on 2009 though punters can at least draw some comfort from the Paul Nicholls and Kim Bailey yards who have won it twice each in the last ten years and the first named has an entry for 2016 as well. The Champion trainer has decided he will rely on Warriors Tale (14/1), a seven-year-old son of Midnight Legend who has taken one of his four starts over fences and placed in two others. He returned to action at Perth over three miles when making all to hack up by sixteen lengths despite making a mess of the last fence but was a lot sketchier at his fences last time out at Kelso when struggling home in third a full forty-eight lengths behind the winner and pretty much tailed off. The stable had others engaged her so it is interesting that he takes his place in the line-up but he will need to jump a lot better if he wants to have any chance this afternoon.

At these weights surely Final Assault (14/1 Each Way) is the value call for trainer Lucinda Russell and jockey Derek Fox. The betting suggested he would come on a little for the run on his return at Ayr over an inadequate two and a half miles but he still ran a blinder to come home in second, beaten three and a quarter lengths at the line and looking one paced over the reduced trip. Left of the same rating by the handicapper he will be race fit now and looks overpriced and well worthy of support this afternoon.

Sussex trainer Gary Moore has decided to let Antony (7/1) take his chance in this line up and as he is looking for his third win of the season over fences it seems understandable that he heads the early market. He does have a bad habit of jumping left which has caused its issues but they will have worked hard on that little problem at home but it seems more worrying that he has been put up another eight pounds by the handicapper, and he will need to improve again to get involved in the finish now.

Jonjo O’Neill remains as popular as ever with racing fans and In The Rough (7/1) has been well supported in the early markets though whether this is a down to owner J P McManus or not is anybody’s guess. The seven-year-old has been kept on the go over the summer so will be fully fit after a third to Carrigdhoun at Carlisle over three and a quarter miles last time out and won over three miles the race before but there won’t be much improvement left to come and the handicapper may well have him now.

Meanwhile Nicky Henderson is heading the stats ahead of this race with a quite ridiculous 33% strike rate in the past two weeks, and he has Full Shift (20/1) entered her though at first glance he is hardly a stand-out contender. Bought after winning a point to point at Milborne St Andrew he was always seen as a chaser in the making but hasn’t really hit the heights envisaged just yet with one win from seven starts but may yet be better than we have seen to date. His only run this winter was over three miles and a furlong last month at Cheltenham when pulled up after plenty of mistakes starting with the first fence and never really looking that interested, but his astute trainer will have pulled out all the stops at home to work on his errant ways and he could do better dropped back in trip if they have ironed out his jumping issues on the schooling grounds.

If strike rates aren’t enough for you and pure profit is more your concern then Fergal O’Brien is the man to be with at the moment as he is showing a 16 point profit to level one point stakes in the last fourteen days and he has Mystifiable (8/1) in here as he looks to have his first race of the new season. Only a youngster in chasing terms at the age eight, the grey son of the legendary sire Kayf Tara has won two of just the four starts over the larger obstacles, one each at Leicester and more interestingly here at Newbury over course and distance, but was pulled up on his last outing at Aintree when tried over three miles and a furlong and weakening before a tired mistake two out, but if he is race fit after over seven months off then he could put in a bold effort over a trip and track he clearly appreciates.

Tom George may not be in among the winners in the same way but he has entered O’Maonlai (20/1) who may not look an obvious option but did finish second in this race last season at odds of 25/1 and interestingly, off three pounds higher as well. Although it would be unfair to call that a one off he hasn’t done a great deal since, with a fifty-two length twelfth of twenty-three in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival his only completed start from three with a pair of pulled ups sandwiching that effort. Anyone looking to back him here needs to be fully aware of all the possible drawbacks but there is no arguing that he well handicapped and handles track trip and grade and he could go a lot better than his likely price suggests.

Looking for other profitable trainers and Evan Williams is responsible for joint top weight On Tour (9/1) who reappeared after eight months off with a very respectable one length second to Thomas Brown at Aintree in a similar looking contest. Sent off at 8/1 that day the odds suggested he may well blow a few cobwebs away after the race and if that is an accurate assessment then he has every right to do even better now, though eleven stone twelve seems pretty punitive and he will need a career best (by three pounds) if he wants to win off a rating of 140.

To end our race preview it is becoming a bit of a habit to mention Colin Tizzard in these Saturday races and the table have entered Gentleman Jon (16/1) here as the eight-year-old looks to land his hat trick this afternoon. Wins at Wincanton over three miles two and a half furlongs and then three miles one prove his stamina is not an issue, but an added six pounds for his last win plus a drop in trip is, though he has won over this sort of trip before and likes to make the running, and if he can get to the front we can be certain he won’t be stopping up the home straight.