Listowel‘s Harvest Festival always provides some thoroughly competitive racing and the main event takes place on Wednesday. The Kerry National has a prize fund of €200,000 and the three-mile handicap chase has attracted a full field of 18. Here we take a look at some of the key trends and the signs look good for our free 18/1 tip. Check out our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.
Eight of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st and in some cases significantly so. Gordon Elliott’s Wrath Of Titans won it back in 2016 and the seven-year-old carried just 9-3. The only other horse to win carrying in excess of 11st is 2018 scorer Snow Falcon.
Two-time Cheltenham Stayers’ Hurdle winner Flooring Porter carried 11-4 when winning last year but that’s an exceptional case. You don’t get many Grade 1 winners of his ability lining up too often and he took full advantage of a generous chase mark.
Younger horses with scope for improvement have thrived in this race in recent years. Joseph O’Brien even won it with a five-year-old back in 2022, as 142-rated Busselton came out on top. Veterans have struggled in recent years as no 10-year-olds have managed to win.
The oldest winner in the last decade is the trend-busting Flooring Porter, taking the race in 2024 at the age of nine. Five of the last 10 winners were seven-year-olds and that could be pertinent information to consider.
Ireland’s five leading Jumps trainers have all won the race in the last decade, with Gordon Elliott and Joseph O’Brien both winning two each. This makes them worth keeping an eye on!
These trends point to a big run from the Willie Mullins-trained Arctic Fly. Mullins won the race with Cabaret Queen back in 2020 and could do so again here. The seven-year-old mare carries 10-12 and it’s interesting that this is her first attempt over three miles.
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