The trends point to only one winner in the Oaks on Friday

The Oaks is the second fillies’ classic of the season and it’s one of the most significant races on the calendar. Some exceptional horses have won it and it has huge importance from a breeding point of view too. The race takes place on Friday and a competitive field of nine has been declared. We’ve had a look at the key trends in recent years and they point to only one winner. Check out our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.

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Key trends

Nine out of the last 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien (six) and John Gosden (three), which suggests they have a bit of a stranglehold on the race. This means we can rule out race favourite Desert Flower, as well as Elwateen, Revoir, Wemightakedlongway and Qilin Queen.

All bar one of the last 10 winners had a three-figure rating, which doesn’t bode well for three of the runners, including John & Thady Gosden’s Go Go Boots.

Seven recent winners were drawn in stall five or lower, though that’s probably going to be less significant this year. There are only nine runners so the draw shouldn’t be too telling but it’s worth taking note of. Aidan O’Brien’s Whirl is drawn out in stall nine which isn’t ideal for her chances.

Only two horses fit the bill so far and they are two Ballydoyle runners, Minne Hauk and Giselle. We can narrow that down to one by considering the fact that six of the last 10 winners didn’t compete in group races at two. Giselle ran in a Group 3, finishing third behind Whirl, so she also gets crossed off the list.

Verdict

Minnie Hauk won the Cheshire Oaks when last seen and surprised connections in the process. She wasn’t expected to be fit enough and is therefore likely to come on for the run. Enable was the last filly to win the Cheshire Oaks before following up at Epsom and the trends suggest Minnie Hauk can follow suit.

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