Newmarket’s July Festival continues on Friday and we have another excellent seven-race card to look forward to. The main event is the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes and a field of eight has been declared. We’ve taken a deep dive into the trends and recent history points to one filly who has everything in her favour. Take a look at our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.
All of the last 10 winners were three or four and all bar one of the runners fit the profile. Unfortunately this trend doesn’t bode well for Running Lion, so she’s crossed off the list. Once again, 10 of the last 10 winners have achieved a top three finish this season and Elwateen has failed to do so.
Nine of the last 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot beforehand, six in the Coronation Stakes and three in the Duke Of Cambridge. This rules out Elmalka, Atsila and German raider Lady Ilze. The three remaining runners all lined up in either of the aforementioned Royal Ascot races.
Aidan O’Brien’s January is officially rated 110 and she could be just below the level needed with that in mind. Seven of the last 10 winners were rated 111 or higher and the average rating over this period is just shy of 113. It’s therefore a straight shot between Crimson Advocate and Cinderella’s Dream.
Crimson Advocate gets the nod narrowly, ahead of Charlie Appleby’s Cinderella’s Dream. John & Thady Gosden’s filly breezed past to win the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and it would take some performance to overturn that form. The daughter of Nyquist should prove hard to beat if turning up in similar form this time around.
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