3.00pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 10/02/2017

An excellent sprint handicap at Southwell’s flying 5 furlongs and a strong field of 11 have turned up biding to win their share of the £11,500 prize fund, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Razin’ Hell will be popular given his excellent record at this track but he doesn’t offer much in the way of value and is opposed. Showdaisy makes the shortlist as she should find further improvement in due course but preference is for the John Butler trained filly, LADY NAYEF. She has proved to be most progressive in recent times and despite going up in grade, ran a cracking race over C&D last time out. More could come out of the tank before she heads off to the paddocks and a big run is expected.

DISTANT PAST – As good as ever since fitted with a visor this winter, winning a decent sprint handicap at Newcastle (5f, Std) in December off a mark of 87 and had never defied such a rating before. Having been raised 5lbs in the weights, Kevin Ryan’s 7-year-old has been unable to match that form since, including last time out over C&D. Takes a drop in grade now and that will help, but probably still vulnerable off top-weight and place claims might be the best he can hope for this time around.

MEADWAY – Three-time C&D winner who lost his unbeaten tag at the track on New Year’s day, going down by a half-length to today’s rival Razin’ Hell and could have won that too were it not for being a tad sluggish from the stalls. Bombed out completely three weeks later, again over C&D, when upped to Class 2 company and that leaves him with something to prove. Clearly enjoys racing on fibresand and might bounce back to form sooner rather than later, but too many questions are in need of answers at present.

SHOWDAISY – Improving 4-year-old filly who boasts a fine 4-11 record in handicaps. Has improved nearly 30lbs since winning her first race off 59 at Hamilton (5f, Good) in July and showed that fibresand suited in November when winning over C&D off 81. Her latest two course runs were on the disappointing side but was at least keeping on when 5 lengths behind Poyle Vinnie a couple of weeks ago. The suspicion is that she will prove capable of better and with Phillip Makin back on board, a place on the shortlist is merited.

RAZIN’ HELL – Very capable performer at this track, winning 7 from 15 starts with another 3 seconds and 3 thirds in the form book. Better than ever this winter, particularly the last twice over C&D when first defeating Meadway off 83 at 12/1, after which his part-owner said that “his record around here is phenomenal and he absolutely loves the surface“, and then when runner-up to Poyle Vinnie at Class 2 level off 85. Impossible to rule out another big run but suspect something else might be able to progress beyond his level.

SEVE – Occasionally useful sprinter who enjoys himself most when able to dominate from the front, as was the case when landing a gamble off a mark of 80 at Lingfield in November. Not so good in two of his three runs since going up the weights but did run well when fourth at Kempton on his penultimate start. Definitely a place contender if replicating that but is yet to tackle fibresand and his only relative to run here didn’t do much to enthuse. The market may guide but there are too many worries over the suitability of the surface.

SEAMSTER – In great form on the turf during the summer time, winning his first race at Beverley (5f, Good) off 56 before scoring another four times. The most recent of those was at Catterick (5f, Good-to-Soft) off 75, after which trainer David Loughnane said “Seamster has been a star, he has gone up nearly 20lb and is still winning“. He finds himself a full 9lbs above that mark now off 84 and for all that he has won 3 times at the track, he returns from a 156 day lay-off and that leaves his current fitness as an unknown.

ORIENT CLASS – Big horse who proved progressive between June and September, winning 3 of 5 starts and finishing second on the other two occasions. That led to him being sent off as a 7/1 shot in the super competitive Ayr Bronze Cup and whilst he did run well, it proved to be a task too far in a 21 runner cavalry charge. He was only beaten a head off 1lb lower than today’s mark after that but finished stone last when lining up at Nottingham 100 days ago and entitled to need the run on what is his debut on fibresand.

DUNGANNON – Impressive C&D winner a couple of weeks ago, bringing his course record to 2-6. That was in selling company, however, and he was entitled to win it easily at the weights. Faces a much stiffer task this time around back in a handicap off 82 but did run well behind The Big Lad on his penultimate start when beaten a half-length into second and has place claims once more. Whether he will be capable of winning is the issue, with this being a grade above that runner-up effort, and it could be too competitive.

SIR BILLY WRIGHT – 1-16 on the All-Weather and sole success was at Wolverhampton (6f, Std) in March of 2015, but has finished second over C&D off today’s mark of 82 and not impossibly treated from a simplistic point of view. Disappointed when last seen 70 days ago, again at Wolverhampton, finishing well behind Nimr in eight and didn’t travel within himself for long. Could be rejuvenated after the break but will need to be at his very best to threaten some of these and the market may be the best guide.

LADY NAYEF – Improved performer in recent months, notching up a hat-trick of victories on the All-Weather in December and January, including once over C&D. Most recently won at Lingfield a few weeks ago with trainer John Butler saying afterwards that “she almost had to win today, as she´s rated 74 now and was in a 0-65. It´s amazing how she has improved since she got her confidence“. Stepped up massively in grade when fourth over C&D a couple of weeks ago, finishing less than 3 lengths off Poyle Vinnie and that is good form. Might be able to do better with John Egan taking over from an apprentice and is a big player.

BRING ON A SPINNER – Lightly-raced 4-year-old gelding who is 4-5 on artificial surfaces, with all of those runs coming at this track. Two of the wins have come over C&D but showed most of his improvement over a furlong further and sole defeat was on his penultimate start when fifth behind Razin’ Hell over C&D. Seemed to find it all happening too quickly and with plenty of pace on, there is a worry that the same trick could be repeated. Looks sure to be involved if able to cope with the early gallop but it is a major worry at 5f.