3.15pm Warwick Tips & Betting Preview

Seven runnings so far of this intriguing two and a half mile handicap chase have seen three winning favourites (if you include Bagan who was a 3/1 joint favourite in 2007), as well as winners at odds up to just 17/2, and with three winners carrying eleven stone twelve including the last two, there is good reason to hope for a big run from the Paul Nicholls trained Vibrato Valtat (9/4). A course winner here in February 2015 over two miles in a novice chase, he was last seen at Kempton in a Listed race when runner up to the Nicky Henderson trained Vaniteux. This is effectively a drop in class in to handicap company which may be just what he needs to win his sixth race over fences on his nineteenth start. His yard are in good enough form and he seems strong enough to carry top weight (he has carried eleven stone nine to success over hurdles), and if he repeats his last effort he may well prove too good for these this afternoon.

If he has an off day then the in-form Neil Mulholland yard will try to make the most of it with the interesting Activial (7/1) as they look to add to their 30% strike rate in the last two weeks with nine winners from their last thirty runners. Lightly raced over fences with just the four starts, he returned this season at Kempton when unseating Richard Johnson at the third after jumping big throughout in the race won by Vaniteux when Vibrato Valtat was runner up, but that may well have been largely down to over exuberance on his first run in eleven months and he ought to be a good deal calmer now. He clearly appears to have plenty of potential to get better with more races under his belt and cannot be easily ignored here in receipt of five pounds from the top weight and could yet be the surprise package here.

Templehills (8/1) was going well enough when held up last time at Leicester over further before falling at the fifth and it will be interesting to see what trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies makes of his chances in his exclusive Myracing.com article on Friday. Just the three races over fences have seen two falls sandwich a win at Fakenham in December when he saw off Raktiman by four and a half lengths quite comfortably and as Nigel loves taking on the more experienced chasers with his novices, he may well have a half decent chance of success if his trainer can sort out his jumping issues on the schooling grounds at home.

A 20% win rate in the last fortnight is not to be sniffed at and that brings in the Venetia Williams gelding Cold March (7/2) who has elven stone ten to carry here after bring put up six pounds for winning last time out at Musselburgh over this two and a half mile trip. That was a similar race to this one (a Class Two handicap), and he stayed on very strongly all the way to the line to score by two and a half lengths at the line, and the faster they go early on here the better his chances.

Lastly, On Tour (7/1) is the only other runner to carry his racing weight with No Buts out of the handicap and Evan Williams’ nine-year-old has slim chances of some place prize money. His last victory was at Carlisle in November 2015 and he is yet to win beyond two miles three under rules, but he did score in a three mile point to point, so all is not lost. Last time out he finished fifth to Foxtail Hill in a better race when looking one paced over two miles five at Cheltenham and he has been put down a nice two pounds for that effort and if there is a dark horse in this contest, he could yet be the one to cause an upset.