4.15pm York Tips & Betting Preview 24/08/2017

Just the two winning favourites in the last nine renewals of this race, with Abingdon at 13/8 last year for Sir Michael Stoute the last of them. It is worth noting that Andrea Atzeni has ridden two of the last three winners of this mile and a half Listed race worth close to £40,000 for the winner. Read our full race preview along with our selection ahead of the 4.15pm at York this afternoon.

IN SUMMARY: Sir Michael Stoute won this last season and can do so again in 2017 with MORI who, as a daughter of Frankel, looks sure to get even better with more racing. Her form already stands out and she is hard to oppose with much more to come. However, Ouja could well give her a battle all the way to the line.

1 MORE MISCHIEF – A decent enough mare with five wins from her 16 starts to date, the latest of which was at Newcastle on the All Weather over a mile and a quarter in June. She has also won over this trip, but not in anything like this class and giving weight away against more likely stayers appears to prove beyond her here. Stable are none from 11 in the last two weeks which makes her hard to suggest.

2 SHEARLING – A decent enough bumper winner with victories at Warwick, Wetherby and Catterick, but still a maiden on the flat after three starts. Ran her best race when third to Abingdon in a Listed contest at Pontefract in late June. However, she was beaten 11 lengths that day and that might be as good as she is. The Brian Ellison stable are in good form with four wins from their last 13 runners (31%) and a level stakes profit of 13.33 points, but she would do well to add to that here.

3 ZAIN ARION – Left Charlie Fellowes for John Butler in October last year and seems to prefer her new surroundings. She has had three wins from five races since, including a Class 4 handicap over course and distance in May. This is clearly a different question and she was found out in the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock last time out when a 19 1/2 length eighth of nine to Bateel. She just might be punching above her weight again this afternoon in this field and has plenty to find on official ratings. Stable are on an 11% strike rate in the last fortnight, however that seems unlikely to improve her chances.

4 MORI – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute who won this last season, the daughter of the legendary Frankel has only had the four starts so far. She won two of those at Ascot in a maiden and then at Goodwood in Listed class over 1 1/4 miles when seeing off Coconut Creme by 1 3/4 lengths. Last time out she was stepped up in class and trip when beaten on the line by a neck by Coronet in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot She will be a major player here with any further improvement.

5 ALJEZEERA – Another Frankel filly and very lightly raced, with a maiden win at two years old and a third to Natavia in Listed class this year when beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Needs to improve to get involved here, but looks as though the step up in trip will suit. Trainer Luca Cumani is in great form, with five winners from his last 19 runners for a 26% success rate. He is also showing a 5.03 points level stakes profit.

6 CURLEW RIVER – Three wins from four starts this season, with a 1 1/2 mile Brighton handicap last time out. She made all the running there and quickened away for an eased down 4 1/2 length victory at the line. This is much tougher and she has about seven pounds more to find to get involved in the finish. However, she is improving quickly and all things are possible with trainer Mark Johnston who currently boasts an 18% strike rate.

7 EURO NIGHTMARE – Won her fourth race on her 11th start at Ayr last time out in late July; she ran on strongly over 1 1/4 miles to score by a 1/2 length at the line. She has tried longer races from 1m 3f to 1m 6f without success and may well find this beyond her against this standard of rivals. The Keith Dalgleish stable are ticking over nicely and he seems to think that this trip is within her abilities.

8 FLEUR FORSYTE – Surprised everyone when finishing a good third behind To Eternity at Newmarket in the Listed Chalice Stakes at odds of 40/1. However, she was beaten 6 1/4 lengths and will need to improve again this afternoon to take a hand. James Fanshawe does particularly well with her sort and she may well have plenty more to offer in the near future. Even so, based on what we have actually seen so far she may place at best today.

9 OUJA – Won her maiden very comfortably last time out at Kempton on the All Weather, but this is a big ask in comparison and she looks to have plenty to prove. That said, trainer John Gosden has a stable full of classy fillies and he will know exactly how good she is on the Newmarket gallops and, if there is to be a shock here, she seems as likely as any to be the one to provide it. Her stable are in good form, with seven winners from their last 27 runners (26%) and there are worse each way alternatives in this field.

10 SERENADA – Rarely runs two races the same. Even though she won her maiden in April and finished a highly respectable third to Shutter Speed in the Musidora Stakes here in May, she was last seen finishing fifth of nine at Salisbury, beaten 3 1/2 lengths. That followed a 13 1/2 length tenth of 11 over this trip at Newmarket. Not sure to stay and seems out of form at present, making her difficult to recommend.