8.15pm Chelmsford Tips & Betting Preview 27/04/2017

This is an interesting handicap over a mile, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Jamie Osborne’s ICE ROYAL is an incredibly consistent horse and he’s not out of this off a mark of 87. He was only beaten a head off today’s mark in February and he’s been overlooked in the betting here for a horse that is sure to run to his level. Shaiyem is the big danger with an excellent run off a seasonal break whilst James Doyle is an interesting booking aboard North Creek.

1 ICE ROYAL – Incredibly reliable sort who rarely runs a bad race. He races off a pound lower mark than when beaten over 1m 2f here earlier this month but that still leaves him 3lbs higher than his last winning mark although he was only beaten a head off 87 in February. Impossible to rule out today given his consistency and his trainer has a solid 13% strike rate. Plenty to like at a decent price.

2 SHAIYEM – Lightly-raced sort who made a pleasing return to action off a long break at Newmarket 9 days ago. He finished second of thirteen in a much stronger race than this and off the same mark today, it would be disappointing if he couldn’t go one better here. Frankie Dettori is on board and the yard have been going extremely well of late (20% strike rate in the past fortnight). Has to be respected.

3 WELLIESINTHEWATER – Took advantage of a falling mark last month when winning off 75 and he followed that up over C&D off a 4lb higher mark. He won comfortably on both occasions and it’s unlikely he’s been handicapped out of this off just 5lbs higher. This will require another excellent effort but the stable have obviously got him in top shape and he’s still relatively unexposed over the mile trip. Worth close attention in the betting.

4 IMPERIAL STATE – Dropped 2lbs for a modest effort in handicap company at Doncaster in October of last year. He had shown some progressive form prior to that including a runaway success a off a mark of 76 at Thirsk before being disqualified. He’s been handed a poor draw in stall 11 today and he may just need this off a 187-day break but the booking of Ted Durcan looks positive and he’s one to watch very closely in the betting.

5 NORTH CREEK – Another progressive sort who won off marks of 63 and 68 last season and placed off marks in the high 70’s on the turf across the summer. He couldn’t manage any better than eighth of a thirteen strong field at Newcastle on his final start of his last campaign but that was a slightly disappointing run and better will be expected here. James Doyle has been in flying form of late (19% strike rate) and he’s an interesting runner.

6 PENDO – 4 wins from 36 career starts and he’s been off the track since January following a comfortable defeat at Kempton in similar company to this. He’s more exposed than many of his rivals today and he looks high enough in the weights off this career high mark. This is the right grade for him but he’ll need to produce a career best effort to win this and others make more appeal on today’s terms.

7 ROBERO – Showed himself to be on a good mark off 76 with a head defeat at Southwell last time out to a well-treated rival. He remains on the same mark today and he returns to a quicker surface which should be ideal given he’s won at Wolverhampton and Newcastle previously. He’s been sent off favourite on his last 6 starts and there’s likely to be plenty of support for him again for a yard that have an excellent 27% strike rate at Chelmsford.

8 SKIDBY MILL – Finished second when beaten a neck off 2lbs lower last month over C&D and he couldn’t finish any better than fourth on his latest outing at Lingfield. He’s an exposed sort and this step up to Class 4 company is likely to find him out today. Pat Cosgrave is back on board which is a positive and stall 4 is ideal but he’s vulnerable to most of these and is best watched for a yard that do well here (17% strike rate).

9 TELLOVOI – Richard Guest has an excellent 28% strike rate at Chelmsford but it would be a surprise to see this runner extend his good record here. Connections applied a hood last time out but it didn’t have the desired effect having finished fifth of ten and he remains 3lbs higher than his last winning mark back in December. He should improve for his seasonal return but others look much better weighted today.

10 KENSTONE – Has undergone a huge transformation since arriving at the Adrian Wintle yard with some impressive form figures: 112213. He’s risen from a mark of 52 to today’s rating of 74 and his regular rider Hollie Doyle claims 3lbs again and they should make a bold bid off what could still be a fair mark. He has it all to do in this grade but he’s still unexposed over a mile and stall 6 is perfect.

11 TEE IT UP TOMMO – Finished 3/4 of a length behind Kenstone in March and he should be capable of reversing the form on today’s terms. He’s struggled since rising to a mark of 71 and this is the toughest company he’s faced since January and he will need to rekindle some of his old form to win this. The yard have been quite quiet of late with just four runners in the past fortnight and there are some more attractive profiles in this.

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