8.05pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 09/08/2017

Two runnings but punters are yet to see a winning favourite, with Classical Rose scoring in 2015 for Charlie Fellowes at 8/1 and Consulting last year for Martyn Meade at 4/1, however neither have a runner this year. What we do have is 13 runners with just nine pounds covering them from top to bottom, so it should be a close run contest. Below we have our full race preview, plus selection for the 8.05pm at Kempton on Wednesday.

IN SUMMARY: Narjes should run well enough, but it may be worth taking a chance on top weight TOBRAVE (Each Way) here for the Roger Varian yard who looks the better value. He showed plenty of promise on his last start, despite still looking as green as grass and with another winter on his back he ought to be a different beast. The fact that connections are sending him handicapping instead of the easier maiden route suggests they think the same way.

1 TOBRAVE – Roger Varian’s son of Invincible Spirit ran just the three times as a juvenile; a length-and-a-half fourth to Tai Sing Yeh at Lingfield over seven furlongs on his final outing was the best of the trio. That was in a first time hood and the headgear is back on again for his seasonal return. He also looks the type to do far better with another winter on his back. He did pull too hard last time and his trainer will have worked on teaching him to settle now. With David Egan claiming five pounds off his back, he ought to be a major player here and seems well worth serious consideration.

2 SHEIKSPEAR – Just the three races for trainer Ed de Giles after leaving Joseph Tuite, but he did win over six furlongs at Chepstow on fast ground in July before running out of stamina over this trip on a softer surface at Newbury. Second over course and distance when weakening as a two-year-old, he has a better chance of getting home now on this surface. However, his opponents will make sure they test his stamina to the limit and that could yet become an issue.

3 RED GUNNER – One win from eight starts now and that was over this trip at Wolverhampton as a juvenile when in the care of William Haggas. He has since moved to David O’Meara and finished ninth, eighth and sixth with a four-and-a-quarter length defeat by Phalaborwa at Wolverhampton his latest, and perhaps best, run this season. He does drop in class here and is down two pounds as well, but needs to show some signs of form before he can be sensibly suggested for a stable struggling, with one win from their last 70 runners.

4 DESERT GREY – Astute trainer Roger Charlton adds a tongue tie here to the son of Mastercraftsman who was last seen finishing 13th of 15 in a Chelmsford maiden when weakening late on over the mile last December. Beaten 23 lengths that day, he had shown some ability when second over course and distance the race before that (and first start after being gelded). As this is his first start since leaving the Roger Varian yard, he may improve for a different training regime. That said, a watching brief seems sensible until we see some signs of improvement.

5 DEBONAIRE DAVID – Richard Hughes will have been delighted with the way he won his first two starts this season at Lingfield and Wolverhampton over six furlongs. That was before an extra five pounds from the handicapper seemed to prove too much at both Bath and Newmarket on the turf. Back on the All Weather tonight, they try a seventh furlong for the first time, however he didn’t look to be running on when fourth last time out at headquarters and there is no guarantee he will get this trip. Stable seem out of sorts again with a 6% strike rate on the last two weeks and may find this beyond him.

6 NARJES – Still a maiden after four starts but ran her best race yet when a nose runner-up to Dhalam at Wolverhampton over this trip in May in a first time hood. That was only a maiden, and when tried in handicap company last time out at the same track she found it all too much when a five length ninth despite being sent off the Even money favourite. Left on the same rating this afternoon, Tom Queally rides again for Newmarket trainer James Fanshawe who is going well enough, with three winners from 16 starters in the last 14 days (19%). It will be interesting to see if she is well backed again this evening.

7 DIABLE D’OR – One win from 14 career starts for Eve Johnson Houghton’s grey gelding who was last seen in action at Wolverhampton when fifth of 11 to Phalaborwa, a short head in front of Red Gunner who he meets on one pound worse terms tonight. He did run on late that day under Edward Greatrex who keeps the ride here. If he can be kept nearer to the early pace he could yet confirm that form, although winning would be a different matter entirely.

8 MUDALLEL – A fifth and two fourth places so far this season for the Ed Dunlop trained four-year-old who has been gelded since he was last seen in action. A three-and-a-half length fourth in a Windsor maiden is clearly his best run so far and he may yet do better back on that sort of company. However, a mark of 70 could look quite generous if his operation has brought about any kind of improvement. James Doyle rides for a stable with three recent winners and he could well run into the places here.

9 MILBURN JACK – First time blinkers were tried last time out by trainer Clive Cox to little, if any, effect as he finished a 16 length ninth of ten to Harba over this trip at Sandown, weakening over a furlong from home. This evening they try a visor, but for the moment it appears as if he has his problems. He has little, if anything, in the formbook to recommend him so he may be better off back in maiden company if they want to get a win out of him.

10 SEPRANI – The only last time out winner in the field after scoring by two lengths over six furlongs at Lingfield last month when running on strongly and suggesting that this seven furlongs is within his range. Eased down that day, the son of Sepoy was value for further but has been hit with a seven pound rise in the weights for his sins, and it wasn’t much of a race. Could well improve now that he has the hang of things for trainer Marco Botti who is in great form with two winners from just the nine recent runners. He looks sure to make up into a major player here.

11 LONELY THE BRAVE – Anything trained by Mark Johnston needs a second look and, as he is in good sorts and in among the winners, the son of Lawman is no exception. As things stand, Lonely The Brave does look up against it after a thirteen-and-a-half length last of six in a seven furlong claimer at Catterick last month. That sort of form gives him little or no chance in this field, but he did manage a much better fourth in a better race than this at Carlisle. He cannot simply be written off just in case he wakes up and puts his best hoof forward once again.

12 KNOW THE TRUTH – Still a maiden after four starts but ran her best race yet over this course and distance two races back with a three-quarter length fourth in June when just failing to quicken up as well as those who finished ahead of her. Last time out she gave lengths away at the start and never managed to get involved after that. However, if jockey Michael Coles can get her away on level terms then she is undoubtedly well handicapped even before her jockey’s seven pound claim. She is very much one to add to the shortlist for the in form Andrew Balding stable who have eight winners from their last 45 runners and a level stakes profit of 44.75 points.

13 MISS ANTICIPATION – Roger Charlton’s filly gets in off bottom weight today. Following a neck second to Sheikspear at Chepstow last time out when running on over six furlongs there is plenty to like about her chances. Put up just a pound for that effort, and with the added furlongs looking likely to suit, she looks to have a solid each way chance tonight. The lack of any All Weather experience is the only obvious negative.

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