7.45pm Kempton tips for Tuesday’s race. Read on for our free betting tips, predictions and analysis.
IN SUMMARY: Joseph O’Brien is going to get to the very top of the training tree eventually and can add another winner here courtesy of GREY WATERS who will appreciate the step up in trip this evening, and is in the best form of all of these. He ran well enough over shorter off the same rating last time, and with another half a mile to travel today can get to the front where it matters once again under the excellent Oisin Murphy.
1 MARJU’S QUEST – Last seen over hurdles when fourth at Market Rasen and steps up in trip on the flat after a ten length sixth of seven here over a mile and a half in early September. Yet to win in nine starts since joining Adrian Wintle from David Dennis in April but has won off up to five pounds higher in the past and is clearly well handicapped if he can bounce back to his best.
2 MAYASA – Trainer John Flint throws a tongue strap and cheekpieces on for the first time after a fourteen length twelfth of thirteen over this trip at Lingfield last time out. She did win over a mile and a half at Wolverhampton in July 2016 off a handicap rating a full ten pounds higher but she seems out of sorts and is hard to recommend under those circumstances.
3 VICTOR’S BET – Megan Nicholls is good value for her five-pound claim here and the son of Leadership does have a course win her over shorter last May. She may have been left with too much to do in her last two starts including a five-length tenth at Lingfield over this trip last month and has a fair bit to find with some of these even at the revised weights.
4 WOOFIE – Rarely runs two races the same but Laura Mongan’s five-year-old has won over this trip at Chelmsford as recently as July and runs off just a pound higher now. His last run was less inspiring when well beaten at the same track but has the cheekpieces back on now and could do a lot better.
5 HATSAWAY – The Pat Phelan stable are struggling for winners with none from five in the last fortnight but the son of Dubawi ought to be a lot happier in this surface than the heavy going he was last seen on at Epsom. Woefully out of sorts but tumbling down the handicap accordingly and very well weighted now if he can recapture his past form.
6 SOUTHERN STATES – First-time cheekpieces and the eyeshields are back on for the Lydia Richards trained gelding who is still a maiden after thirteen starts. He has placed three times in total including a two and three-quarter length third in a better race at Lingfield on the turf and if he can repeat that in the headgear he has every chance of a place at least off a rating three pounds lower tonight.
7 AUTHOR’S DREAM – William Knight trains and Luke Morris rides after his Breeders Cup exploits and with a first-time visor some improvement can be expected. He was well supported over this course and distance on his last run in June when sent off the 7/4 favourite when left with too much to do but could do a lot better here and looks a major each way player if the headgear brings improvement.
8 THANKYOU VERY MUCH – Twelve runs since her last win on the flat back in 2014 but she has run well over hurdles with a couple of wins over fences at the end of 2016. Last time out she finished a good second over this sort of trip at Newcastle when beaten a length and a half off a pound lower than she has here, and with the James Bethell stable in good form of late with two winners from just the six runners (33%) in the last fourteen days she ought to be able to get involved in the finish.
9 CARACAS – Still a maiden after just the six starts Harry Dunlop’s Cacique gelding ran his best race yet last time out when a two-length fourth to Dovil’s Date over this trip in a better race at Lingfield, and ahead of Atalanta Bay, Victor’s Bet, and Mayasa who all re-oppose here. Only a three-year-old, he seems to be a late maturing sort and finally looks to be getting the idea of what is needed, making him hard to rule out tonight.
10 ATALANTA BAY – Marcus Tregoning has his string in good sorts with two wins from ten runners in the last fourteen days (20%) and will be expecting a big run from the daughter of Strategic Prince who has won four of her twenty-one starts and placed in five others. She was behind Caracas at Lingfield last time out finishing two and a half lengths adrift of that rival who she meets on four pounds better terms tonight and she ought to finish a lot closer now.
11 GREY WATERS – Heads over from Ireland for Joseph O’Brien after winning at Killarney and Listowel over hurdles before finishing fourth at Dundalk over a mile and a half on his return to the flat and he runs off the same rating of 61 this evening. Yet to win on the flat after eleven attempts this may be his best chance yet with Oisin Murphy in the saddle and he arrives with plkenty of stable confidence.
12 BUMBLE BAY – Still a maiden after just the five starts on the flat but he has scored in a Uttoxeter bumper and a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot in June 2016. His recent efforts on the flat have been poor with a seven and three-quarter length eighth at Wolverhampton last time and although dropped another three pounds here he may well do better back over obstacles shortly.
13 INDIAN RED – Six starts over distances ranging from a mile to two miles are yet to yield a place let alone a win, and he was beaten over eight lengths over this trip at Chelmsford last time out off a rating of 60. Only dropped three pounds for that he looks to have a lot to find again today though he has so few miles on the clock that he may yet have more to offer.
14 OCEAN GALE – Her one win from fifteen starts was over a mile and three-quarters at Salisbury in August but she has run well since with three third and a fourth off of higher marks. A third to St Andrews over course and distance was followed by a three and a quarter length third to Ballyfarsoon at Wolverhampton running on at one pace late on and if Hollie Doyle can keep her nearer the leaders here, she has an obvious each way chance.