IN SUMMARY: In a competitive event, Jebediah Shine, El Astronaute and Paddy Power all come here after very good performances and are respected but, at the prices, it could be worth chancing DISTANT PAST (8/1 Each Way). Kevin Ryan’s 5yo made a low-key reappearance at York but a subsequent 2lb drop in the weights is helpful if that run did him good and he was a dual C&D winner last season. Olivia Fallow also needs to build on her seasonal debut but she looked progressive before her 2015 campaign was truncated and could also have a say.
1 Distant Past – Never threatened when making seasonal debut in Class 2 event at York this month but dropped in class today and is entitled to have benefited from that outing; gained two of his three wins in 2015 over C&D and returns here on a workable mark; cheekpieces refitted; one to consider.
2 Jebediah Shine – Won four times on turf last season and twice on Polytrack during the winter (all over 5f); back on turf with excellent effort when very close second at Redcar (5f, good to firm) recently and might still be improving; needs to be taken very seriously.
3 Olivia Fallow – Didn’t appear again last season after scoring at Thirsk (5f, good) in August but made satisfactory return to action when midfield at Redcar (5f, good to firm) 11 days ago; not yet fully exposed and is a player if that recent outing did her good.
4 Bowson Fred – Ended last season with string of decent efforts on turf and has reached the frame on all three AW starts since returning from break this spring, including when winning at Wolverhampton on first occasion; needs a new career-best performance to overcome current mark but expected to give another good account.
5 Rosina – 3yo filly who won three of her first four 2yo starts but, in pursuit of some valuable “black type” has been unplaced in four subsequent Listed events, two of them this season; has sights lowered today but doesn’t look obviously well treated back in a handicap.
6 El Astronaute – Hit the target three times during 2yo season and has made pleasing start to current campaign, most recently when very creditable second at York (5f, good to firm) a fortnight ago; takes on older horses this time but has obvious claims off the same mark.
7 Paddy Power – Took six attempts to win a maiden but proved he’s moved into handicaps on a workable mark when creditable third (a short-head behind El Astronaute) at York (5f, good to firm) a fortnight ago; could still have a bit more to offer and enters calculations.
8 Adham – Non-runner
9 Go Go Green – Comes here after going close at Ayr (6f, good to soft) on Monday and will also be suited by today’s trip/ground but this race is much more competitive and we know this fully exposed 10yo has no margin for error off his current mark.
10 Flash City – Improved upon moderate seasonal reappearance when placed on consecutive starts but took backward step when down the field at Thirsk a fortnight ago; now on lowest mark since summer 2014 but, even if bouncing back to form, may find this race too competitive.
myracing Forecast Prices: 3/1 El Astronaute, 7/2 Paddy Power, 6/1 Jebediah Shine, 8/1 Distant Past, Olivia Fallow, Bowson Fred, Rosina, 14/1 Go Go Green, 16/1 Flash City